874
FXUS64 KBRO 300315
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1015 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS,
AND VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISKS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- DESPITE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE BROAD AND STRONG 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME THAT
RECENTLY RESULTED IN A HEAT WAVE WITH RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ON THE
MOVE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK OR INTO THE EARLY PART OF
SEPTEMBER. THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RISK IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PRIOR DAYS, THE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL
STILL YIELD HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THOUGH NOT QUITE RECORD-
BREAKING AS PRIOR DAYS) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE NEAR 100F DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 100S FURTHER INLAND OR WEST, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO POCKETS OR AREAS OF EXTREME
)LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. PEAK HEAT INDICES
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES (HIGHEST CLOSER TO
THE COAST) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DROUGHT
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN, THE LARGE-SCALE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FAVOR A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH AT TIMES COULD TRIGGER
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN HOW LOW THE CHANCES ARE
AND HOW ISOLATED AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THEY WILL BE, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. ON SUNDAY, THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PICK BACK UP
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (1 TO 3 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 97 81 98 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 101 77 101 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 80 103 81 103 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 104 79 104 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 90 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 96 79 96 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page