929
FXUS64 KBRO 010345
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1045 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING, ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL
STORM EDOUARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SEPTEMBER FIRST MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL, BUT THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD HAVE NOT GOTTEN THE MEMO.
THE HOT CONDITIONS WE'VE HAD FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS RIDGING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE PATTERN
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100-106 PERSIST DAILY
(90S NEAR THE COAST), AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (80 IN THE RGV, MID-UPPER 70S IN THE
RANCHLANDS), PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HEAT INDICES PEAK TO 110-115DEGF.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. LATEST MID-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AS COASTAL TROUGHING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY EAST OF US281, WITH POPS
INCREASING TO 15-25% SATURDAY AND PERSISTING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL
STORM EDOUARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO IMPACTS TO DEEP S TX
AT THIS TIME, OUTSIDE OF AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME LIGHT
AND/OR VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO AROUND
10-15 KT, GUSTING TO 20-25+ KT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON, BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAVE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE GULF, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING TO 15-30% SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TX/LA
BORDER IN THE NEXT DAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS WEEK UNDER STRONG RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE EXISTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN,
AND MCALLEN ARE LISTED BELOW.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023, 2020)
HARLINGEN: 103F (1928, 1952)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1928, 1937)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
BROWNSVILLE: 102F (2011)
HARLINGEN: 106F (2011)
MCALLEN: 106F (2011)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2011, 2000)
HARLINGEN: 107F (2011)
MCALLEN: 108F (2011)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 81 98 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 80 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 78 105 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 96 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...65
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