909
FXUS64 KBRO 020401
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1101 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CAMERON, WILLACY, AND KENEDY
COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 115
DEGREES.
- HOT TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING, ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE HOT CONDITIONS WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SEPTEMBER AS RIDGING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY) THROUGH THE WEEK, SUPPORTING THE STRETCH OF ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100-107 DAILY
(90S NEAR THE COAST). OVERNIGHT LOWS OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, NEAR 80 IN
THE RGV AND MID-UPPER 70S IN THE RANCHLANDS.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR INLAND AND
COASTAL KENEDY, WILLACY, AND CAMERON COUNTIES AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 111-115 DEGF. WIDESPREAD
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MORE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS COASTAL TROUGHING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY EAST OF US281, WITH
POPS INCREASING TO 15-25% SATURDAY AND PERSISTING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, THIS
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A PARTICULARLY WET PATTERN WITH 7-DAY
CUMULATIVE QPF TOTALS LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. BE SURE TO HAVE ACCESS
TO A SHELTER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE CASE OF A SHOWER...
AND FOR SOME AC!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING. MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS RETURN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL LEAVE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE GULF, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING TO 15-30% SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS WEEK. THE EXISTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN ARE LISTED BELOW.
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1928, 1937)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
BROWNSVILLE: 102F (2011)
HARLINGEN: 106F (2011)
MCALLEN: 106F (2011)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2011, 2000)
HARLINGEN: 107F (2011)
MCALLEN: 108F (2011)
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF AUGUST. BELOW ARE A FEW PRELIMINARY CLIMATE
STATISTICS FOR EACH CLIMATE SITE LAST MONTH.
BROWNSVILLE HAD 16 DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES. SIX DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN OR TIED.
HARLINGEN HAD 27 DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES
IN AUGUST. ELEVEN HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN OR TIED.
MCALLEN HAD 31 DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN
AUGUST. MCALLEN IS IN A 39 DAY STREAK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT
LEAST 100 DEGREES (BEGAN JULY 24, 2026). THIS IS THE THIRD LONGEST
100+ DEGREE DAY STREAK BEHIND 2009 (49 DAYS) AND 2023 (43 DAYS).
EIGHT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN OR TIED IN
AUGUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 99 81 99 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 81 105 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 106 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 90 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 97 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-254-255-
351-354.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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