522
FXUS64 KBRO 041830
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- A COMBINATION LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY, DRY GRASSES, AND
HOT TEMPERATURES MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS LOW
RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN. THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 106-110 DEGREES, ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 111-113 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. HISTORICAL DATA FOR LABOR
DAY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF AT LEAST
100 DEGREES IS 1% FOR BROWNSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, 8% FOR
HARLINGEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, AND 21% FOR MCALLEN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. WHILE THESE ODDS ARE PROMISING, IT WILL STILL BE HOT
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH LABOR DAY. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS, CONTINUE TO PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES (AROUND 20-30%) RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND ON
LABOR DAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRANSLATES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INLAND. TAKING A LOOK AT SOME LABOR DAY CLIMATOLOGY STATISTICS,
THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.01 INCHES OF
RAIN ON LABOR DAY IS 33% FOR BROWNSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT,
45% FOR HARLINGEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, AND 25% FOR MCALLEN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) FOR NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. WE’LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 5-10
KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE, WITH NEAR DAILY
CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 20-40%. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 99 81 98 / 0 10 10 40
HARLINGEN 77 102 77 101 / 0 20 0 40
MCALLEN 82 104 81 103 / 0 20 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 104 80 103 / 0 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 90 / 0 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 96 79 96 / 0 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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