252
FXUS64 KBRO 051714
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE INLAND AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING
THE BARRIER ISLANDS) FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-111 F, GENERALLY
OCCURRING BETWEEN 12 PM TO 6 PM.
- MOSTLY MAJOR TO EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVELS
3/4 AND 4/4) PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES CONTINUE TO SOAR TO 106-110+ F.
- NEAR DAILY LOW, OCCASIONALLY MEDIUM, CHANCES OF RAIN PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE UNYIELDING HEAT,
WITH TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY RISING TO NEAR 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY; WIDESPREAD LOWER 100S (AROUND 100-104 F)
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS, WARMEST ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RGV, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
105-107 F. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK MAY HELP TEMPERATURES TO EASE OFF A FEW DEGREES BEFORE A
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME, A SPS IS
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL/INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES
(EXCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS) FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-111 F,
GENERALLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE HOURS OF 12 PM TO 6 PM. WIDESPREAD
EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ALONG/WEST OF US-281
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIMITED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND THE MID/UPPER RGV TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH PATCHES OF
EXTREME ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RGV AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHILE MAJOR RISKS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS INTO TOMORROW, BRINGING A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, HIGHEST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES TODAY, WHERE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT (PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2.0 IN.)
AND MORE FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD FURTHER BUILD CHANCES OF
RAIN TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE INTO THE LATER EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST COULD RECEIVE UP TO 0.4 OF AN INCH, PERHAPS A BIT
MORE. THIS SAME PATTERN IS LIKELY TOMORROW, THOUGH AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG/EAST OF US-281.
SHOULD NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN SHORT TERM HI. RES. MODELS, BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT CONVECTION COULD BE ISOLATED, SCATTERED AT MOST, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM, OR TWO, IS POSSIBLE, WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 30+ MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.
RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES OVER LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, REDUCING CHANCES OF
RAIN TO A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE ON MONDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT SERIES
OF WEAK INVERTED SHORTWAVES RE-ELEVATES CHANCES OF RAIN FROM A LOW
(15-30%) CHANCE ON TUESDAY TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY, REMAINING THE HIGHEST ALONG/EAST US-281. FOLLOWING,
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN, DECREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 10% OR
LESS, OR NEAR 15%, AT MOST, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE (LEVEL
2/4) TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO A
MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK BY THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SPSS ARE POSSIBLE
AS HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 106-110+ F.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (AROUND 10-15 KT,
GUSTING TO 20-25 KT) ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING GENTLE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AT KHRL AND KMFE, THOUGH PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE ARE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE WITHIN THE 18Z TAFS. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (1-3
FT) SEAS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN POSSIBLY
MAXIMIZING AROUND A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DAILY LOW (15-30%) CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BULK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE
OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 98 80 98 / 0 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 101 76 101 / 0 30 10 20
MCALLEN 81 103 80 103 / 10 30 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 103 79 103 / 30 20 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 90 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 78 96 / 0 20 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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