421
FXUS64 KBRO 122330 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HOT, RAIN-FREE, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN STORE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD BREAKING AT TIMES, TO CONTINUE EACH DAY
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 109-114 DEGREES, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLE HEAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OR 4) HEAT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS, CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO
PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES NEARBY. IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT, THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
(AROUND 20-40%) ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW/LIGHT AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CLARITY AS
GUIDANCE COMES INTO AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO A GENTLE BREEZE, THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL
BREEZY GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
FOR KHRL AND KBRO TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, IN
WHICH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, OR TWO,
ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AS BREEZY WINDS PERSIST
DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE BY MID WEEK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 98 81 97 / 10 30 10 20
HARLINGEN 78 102 78 101 / 10 20 10 10
MCALLEN 82 103 81 103 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 105 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 10 30 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 96 79 96 / 10 30 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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