996
FXUS64 KBRO 141114 AAC
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) ARE IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
- WIDESPREAD EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 4/4)
PREVAIL ON MONDAY, GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM A MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) AND EXTREME RISK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO A MAINLY
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) RISK BY THURSDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE, MOST CONCERNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY
REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK,
PEAKING AS HIGH AS 60% ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW (15-30%)
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER RGV LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID RGV ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT CONTINUE AS NEARLY WIDESPREAD
INLAND HIGHS SOAR INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH MIDWEEK, HOTTEST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WHERE MID/UPPER 100S (106-108+ F)
ARE EXPECTED, COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTING AND
BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, ELEVATED
MOISTURE CONTENT ON MONDAY FROM A DEPARTING WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LEADS TO ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD EXTREME RISKS
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ON MONDAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND
KENEDY COUNTIES FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 111-114
F WHILE SPSS ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE FOR INDICES OF 108-111 F
DURING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE BARRIER ISLANDS ARE
EXCLUDED FROM BOTH THE ADVISORY AND SPS. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR
RESUMES MONDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MOSTLY MAJOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXTREME RISKS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RGV AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS; SPSS FOR
HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 111 F ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS BREEZIER CONDITIONS (SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35+
MPH) COINCIDE WITH MINIMIZING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. AT THIS
TIME, TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE OF THE GREATEST CONCERN, THOUGH
SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS MAY BE JUST BENEATH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
CRITERIA. NONETHELESS, YOU CAN ALWAYS VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BRO/ FOR
THE LATEST DETAILS AND TIPS REGARDING DANGEROUS HEAT AND FIRE
WEATHER.
A BIT OF A WEATHER CHANGE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW RETREATS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURES SPILLS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST TO THE GULF,
PUSHING A LARGE AREA OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
OUT AHEAD OF IT, DELIVERING A REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AND A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF US-281 ON BOTH DAYS.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN, PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN PWAT VALUES PEAK AS HIGH AS
2.0-2.3+ IN. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE PULSE OF MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND, YET INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, LOW (15-30%) CHANCES
OF RAIN AND NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
IMPROVE RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TO A MOSTLY MODERATE RISK
BY THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S (LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS) AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 102-111 F BEFORE
POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO A WARMING TREND WITH DETERIORATING HEAT
RISKS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SPSS FOR HEAT ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEIGHTENED RIP CURRENTS RISKS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A LONGER PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
SEAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SOUTHEAST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN ANY CB WITHIN RGV AERODROMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY, TRANSITIONING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE
(3-5 FT) TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS A SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF PUSHES SWELL TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
COASTAL WATERS, WHEN SCEC AND, OR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BECOME
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN
TONIGHT DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-70%) CHANCE ON
THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY DROP TO A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 81 98 79 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 101 78 102 76 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 103 81 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 79 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 90 82 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 97 78 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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