845
FXUS64 KBRO 142308 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
608 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 4/4)
PREVAIL ON MONDAY, GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM A MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) AND EXTREME RISK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO A MAINLY
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) RISK BY THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT BROAD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105-111 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN TUESDAY, AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 20-30% ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS GUSTY
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED.
BY THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL LIKELY INCREASE FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 17-20 KT, GUSTING TO 23-26 KT, AT
THIS HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT KBRO AND KHRL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT KMFE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH DROPPING OFF SOME. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK BACK TO SIMILAR MAGNITUDES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SUPPORTING SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS, WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 98 80 97 / 0 0 10 20
HARLINGEN 77 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 81 104 80 103 / 0 0 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 89 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 78 95 / 0 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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