093
FXUS64 KBRO 152317 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
617 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE INLAND
AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES,
WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 108-111 F, OR BRIEFLY
HIGHER.
- NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT AND MAJOR TO EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVELS 3/4 AND 4/4) CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY,
IMPROVING TO A MAINLY MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2/4) BY THURSDAY
THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY
A REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING JUST A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 109-113 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS, CONTINUE
TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY,
AS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT ADVECTS TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE GULF. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2-2.4 INCHES, THIS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20-50%) ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME, BUT ANY SLOW-MOVING OR EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (15-20 KT, GUSTING TO 23-26 KT) CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AND/OR VARIABLE TO
CALM BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TOMORROW
MORNING, INCREASING TO NEAR 10-15 KT, GUSTING TO 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS
AND SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN OR NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 97 80 95 / 0 20 50 60
HARLINGEN 76 100 76 98 / 0 20 40 50
MCALLEN 80 103 80 99 / 0 20 20 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 78 100 / 0 20 10 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 81 88 / 0 20 50 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 95 78 94 / 0 20 40 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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