782
FXUS64 KBRO 161830
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES
(MINUS THE BARRIER ISLANDS) ON WEDNESDAY FOR HEAT INDICES OF
108-111 F.
- NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT AND MAJOR TO EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVELS 3/4 AND 4/4) THIS AFTERNOON IMPROVE
TO A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR RISK BY THURSDAY.
- CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RESPECTIVELY, MINIMIZE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
- A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHILE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER AS AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER ALLOWS FOR NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TRIPLE-DIGITS (AROUND 105-110 DEGREES)
DUE TO THE ELEVATED HUMIDITY. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2-2.4
INCHES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO BEGIN AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
INCREASES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.10-0.25 INCHES),
BUT GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO EFFICIENT RAIN-
PRODUCING PROCESSES AND/OR SLOW-MOVING ACTIVITY.
MOST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE, BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20%) FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF US-281 TO WARM INTO THE TRIPLE-DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON. IN
COMBINATION WITH THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
105-110 DEGREES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST LOW
(20-30%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO
LESS THAN 5-7 KNOTS TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINALS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN OR NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 95 79 95 / 20 50 40 50
HARLINGEN 76 97 76 97 / 20 40 30 40
MCALLEN 80 99 80 98 / 10 40 30 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 78 98 / 0 30 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 20 40 40 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 78 94 / 20 40 30 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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