044
FXUS64 KBRO 171731
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND COASTAL
COUNTIES FOR ELEVATED HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT LOW TO MODERATE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BACKBUILDS
WESTWARD, WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE UNDERSIDE
OF OF THIS HIGH REACHING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BECAUSE THIS
NORTHEASTERLY AIRMASS HAS SPENT CONSIDERABLE TIME OVER THE GULF,
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DEEPLY MOIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 40%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL BENEFICIAL, WITH MOST
AREAS RECEIVING NO MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. HOWEVER, SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE PONDING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
THOUGH THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP DRY OUT
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20% FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WEAKEN BUT WITH CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MOIST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK (MOSTLY EAST OF I-69C), AND SOME
LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A PATTERN SHIFT/POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LATER NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES MAY BRING SOME SMALL
TEMPERATURE RELIEF BY A FEW DEGREES, THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP HEAT INDICES HIGH. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
TODAY FOR THE INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES, WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH BETWEEN 108-111 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAPPEN TO FORM NEAR THE AIRPORT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND NORTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE (2 TO 4
FEET) WAVE HEIGHTS. OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS IN THEIR IMMEDIATE VICINITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 95 78 95 / 40 40 10 20
HARLINGEN 76 97 74 98 / 30 30 10 20
MCALLEN 80 99 77 99 / 20 40 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 75 100 / 30 30 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 88 / 40 30 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 78 94 / 30 30 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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