676
FXUS64 KBRO 261807
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF
4) HEAT RISK WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
COULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER, LIKELY STILL IN THE 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE PATTERN OF HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MID WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, IT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, INCREASED FORCING AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOVER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER HEAT
ADVISORIES LIKELY WON’T BE NEEDED AS PEAK HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 110 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, THOUGH HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COULD RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF BRO AND HRL AND
SOUTH OF MFE, THOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER ONE OF
THE AIRFIELDS CAN’T BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MID-WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS, LEADING TO ADVERSE OR HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 78 96 / 0 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 30
MCALLEN 78 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 81 89 / 0 0 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE
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