897
FXUS64 KBRO 022323
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A MULTI-DAY RAINFALL
EVENT THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL RUNUP AHEAD OF
AND AFTER HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AT 127 AM.
- ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN, AND ALONG
THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS ARRIVED, WITH MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WAS OBSERVED, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY.
THE SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARDS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST, INTERACTING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HUMID
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL, THE CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY WITH SEA BREEZE OR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STREAMER SHOWERS. EXPECT GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AREAS OF ADVANCED DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING WHERE ANY HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
VALLEY, WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND FLASH FLOODING
IS GENERALLY MORE COMMON.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST
15 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR FLOODING RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF US-281/I-69C THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR FLOODING RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS EAST. THERE
REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLOODING RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER VALLEY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ARE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES ALONG
AND WEST OF US-281/I-69C AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL EAST OF
US-281 EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
PERSISTS, WITH THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OF HIGHER END (10
PERCENT CHANCE) 48-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-281/I-69C SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR AREAS EAST OF US-281, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER END (10
PERCENT CHANCE) 48-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDES
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND ANOTHER MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY....OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE COULD BE SOME VCSH AROUND.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL ROUND(S) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TAF SITE WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES
OF BRIEFLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR LEVELS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL DECREASE AND TREND TOWARDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES COASTAL WATERS INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WORKING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A TASTE
OF FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY BECOMING MORE FREQUENT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND COASTAL TROUGH WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POTENTIALLY NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 76 88 / 80 90 80 80
HARLINGEN 74 91 72 88 / 70 80 70 80
MCALLEN 77 92 76 88 / 60 70 80 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 90 74 87 / 80 60 80 80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 79 86 / 80 90 90 90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 76 87 / 70 80 80 90
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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