197
FXUS64 KBRO 030442
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON THE TABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT; THIS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING TO FLASH
FLOODING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS (RAIN-COOLED) AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COOL FRONT LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL PULL FROM THE GULF AND
PACIFIC SOURCE REGIONS, INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER FIXTURES DRIVING
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES EXCEEDING 0.50-
1.00+ INCHES/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE SHIFTED INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN SPOTS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AIDED BY
SURFACE HEATING, A RENEWED THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL TO OUR NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL COME IN WAVES WITH THE BEST TIMING BEING DURING THE PEAK
HEATING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RINSE AND
REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE WIDESPREAD
CATEGORICAL CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. FOR MONDAY, CATEGORICAL
CHANCES ARE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH
LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) POPS EACH
DAY (THURSDAY-SATURDAY). RAINFALL TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ONCE
AGAIN, GIVEN HOW MOIST/TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER ( PWAT) VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES (2-2.5 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL), ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.
GIVEN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN (EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND
RAIN CHANCES), TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MEANWHILE, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY....OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
COULD BE SOME VCSH AROUND.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL ROUND(S) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TAF SITE WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES
OF BRIEFLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR LEVELS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL DECREASE AND TREND TOWARDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MODERATE SEAS TO ADVERSE
(MAINLY SCEC) CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 76 87 / 60 90 90 90
HARLINGEN 74 91 73 86 / 50 70 90 90
MCALLEN 77 92 76 86 / 60 60 90 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 91 73 86 / 80 60 80 80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 79 85 / 60 90 100 90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 89 76 87 / 60 90 90 90
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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