404
FXUS64 KBRO 031719
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY; THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER RGV AND LOWER
TEXAS COAST.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR TIDAL RUNUP
AHEAD OF AND AFTER HIGH TIDE AT 222 AM. LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT NORTH OF THE CWA, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY SETTLED IN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ONGOING ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY, OTHERWISE, THE REST OF OUR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
THE COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, HANGING
INTO MID WEEK, INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL, THE CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK, MAINLY WITH SEA BREEZE OR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STREAMER SHOWERS. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST
15 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR FLOODING RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF US-281/I-69C THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR FLOODING RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS WEST, A
COMPLETE FLIP FROM YESTERDAY AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS
EAST. THERE REMAINS ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, WITH A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER
TEXAS COAST, AND A MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST, WITH
AREAS WEST OF US-281 GENERALLY RECEIVING 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO LATE MONDAY, AND AREAS EAST OF US-281 MOST LIKELY
RECEIVING 3-5 INCHES INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHER END PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW (10
PERCENT) CHANCE OF ISOLATED 5-8 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY, IF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. AS LONG
AS IT FALLS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND NOT IN ONE AFTERNOON,
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY TAKE THE RAINFALL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDES
CONTINUING TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WORKING INLAND FROM THE GULF AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. IFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IF
BANDS OF SHOWERS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS CAMERON COUNTY
ESPECIALLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COASTAL TROUGH, AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE WITH FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 87 76 86 / 90 90 90 80
HARLINGEN 73 86 72 87 / 90 90 90 80
MCALLEN 76 86 76 88 / 90 80 80 70
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 86 73 87 / 80 80 70 60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 79 85 / 90 90 90 90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 87 76 86 / 90 90 90 90
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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