230
FXUS64 KBRO 110000
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL
FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES AND GULF
WATERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHILE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL LAST NIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WE
WILL STILL HAVE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD
SWELL IT CREATED. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AREA BEACHES UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING
WEEK WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A PASSING SEA BREEZE SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING
OF THE POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB TO 100-110 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS CAUSED SEAS AND SWELL TO
BUILD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY
EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT IN SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 79 93 / 0 10 20 10
HARLINGEN 73 92 75 96 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 76 94 78 98 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 94 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 82 88 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 78 92 / 0 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...69-HK
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