871
FXUS64 KBRO 112337
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. COASTAL FLOODING AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) BY MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SOME COASTAL HAZARDS WILL STILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY THIS EVENING. COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AROUND HIGH TIDE AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREA BEACHES UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A PASSING SEA BREEZE SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A COASTAL TROUGH SETTING UP. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR TIMING CHANCES OF THE POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 90S EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO 100-110 DEGREES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH
A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
(BRO AND HRL). CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN TIMING OR DIRECT
IMPACT TO EITHER SITE FOR TAF MENTION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COULD
SEE SOME CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND GULF WATERS MIDWEEK AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE MARINE CONDITONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 81 94 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 79 98 80 99 / 10 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 98 78 99 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 83 89 / 20 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 79 93 / 20 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...69-HK
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