788
FXUS64 KBRO 120555 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
LOCAL BEACHES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
AM.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT WILL END AT 7 AM MONDAY AS WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE DECREASING. SOUTH PADRE ISLAND WEBCAMS AROUND SUNDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE SHOWED NARROW BEACHES, BUT LITTLE TO NO WATER
REACHING THE DUNES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES FOR COLUMBUS DAY.
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF I-69C. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (15% OR LESS) THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY BRING RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS FAR OUT,
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST, AS ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.
THROUGH THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 DEGF RANGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-4 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 20% OR
LESS), WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO MODERATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 81 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 96 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 98 80 99 80 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 89 83 / 10 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 79 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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