052
FXUS64 KBRO 130334
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1034 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL HAZARDS
LATE WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WARM, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
REACHING 106-111 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO MODERATE (40-60%) FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND MAY BRING ELEVATED SURF, AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-80S.
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, SO FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE 5-10 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-4 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 15% OR
LESS), WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. EACH AFTERNOON,
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 81 94 81 / 10 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 96 77 97 78 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 98 80 99 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 89 83 / 10 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 79 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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