601
FXUS64 KBRO 140349
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1049 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL HAZARDS
LATE WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WARM, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
REACHING 106-111 TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S
TOMORROW.
CWA-WIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO
LOW/MODERATE (20-60%) FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ALONG THE COAST IN THE PM.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AS
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP. THIS
TROUGHING COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.1 TO
1.5 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ELEVATED SURF, AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY IN THE RGV AND
COASTAL COUNTIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S-80S. THIS IS STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT, SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE 5-10 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-4 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 15% OR
LESS), WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON,
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 81 92 77 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 97 77 95 74 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 99 80 98 77 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 87 80 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 79 90 76 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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