665
FXUS64 KBRO 141112 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
612 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL HAZARDS
LATE WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WARM, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
REACHING 106-111 TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S
TOMORROW.
CWA-WIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO
LOW/MODERATE (30-60%) FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.1 TO
1.5 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING ELEVATED
SURF, AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY IN THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-80S. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AT MFE ARE FORECAST TO BREAK AND LIFT BY MID-
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. BRO AND HRL ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE,
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-4 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 15% OR
LESS), WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON,
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 76 90 74 / 10 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 94 73 93 71 / 10 0 0 10
MCALLEN 97 77 96 74 / 10 0 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 75 95 72 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 86 78 / 10 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 76 88 74 / 10 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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