251
FXUS64 KBRO 141704 AAC
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1159 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL HAZARDS
LATE WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WARM, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
REACHING 106-111 TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S
TOMORROW.
CWA-WIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO
LOW/MODERATE (30-60%) FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.1 TO
1.5 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING ELEVATED
SURF, AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY IN THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-80S. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, LIKELY BECOMING MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND
10-15+ KT, GUSTING TO 25-30 KT, BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT TO GENTLE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-4 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 15% OR
LESS), WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON,
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 90 74 88 / 0 0 10 50
HARLINGEN 73 93 71 89 / 0 0 10 50
MCALLEN 77 96 74 92 / 0 10 10 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 95 72 90 / 0 0 10 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 78 85 / 0 0 10 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 74 86 / 0 0 10 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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