715
FXUS64 KBRO 152327
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND MULTIPLE MARINE, BEACH, AND WIND HAZARDS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- PEAK WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACH 50 MPH OR HIGHER. ANY
WILDFIRE THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY BECOME DANGEROUS IN
THESE CONDITIONS, WITH ERRATIC GROWTH AND SPREAD.
- BRIEF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH GREATEST CHANCES (30-50%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RH LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT DROP TO 25-45 PERCENT ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS AND ALONG AND WEST OF US-281/I-69C IN THE RGV,
WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
RH VALUES WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND SURFACE GUSTS TO
45-55 MPH WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED THREAT OF WILDFIRE GROWTH AND
ERRATIC SPREAD. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ULTIMATELY A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED.
AS FOR THE WINDS, THERE REMAINS A LOW (10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR MORE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MOST LIKELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
PEAK GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. ALONG THE
COAST, STRONG WINDS AND THE REINFORCING PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DRIVE TIDAL RUNUP AND POTENTIAL BEACH EROSION
AT HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DANGEROUS SURF, AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY, AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT ARE ALL IN EFFECT. A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A COMFORTABLE DROP INTO THE 50S EACH
MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND GRADUALLY WARMING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, BETWEEN
16Z-19Z/FRI, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLD
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHERMORE, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER IN ELEVATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS
DROPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY. LIGHT TO MODERATE (STRATIFORM) RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/FRI FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OR SO
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, IN
RESPONSE AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. WINDS WILL
STEADILY UNDERGO STRENGTHENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL
CHALLENGE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RUNWAYS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GALE WATCH WAS REPLACED WITH A GALE WARNING AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 86 62 72 / 0 30 10 0
HARLINGEN 71 84 59 73 / 0 30 0 0
MCALLEN 74 85 60 74 / 0 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 80 57 75 / 0 30 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 68 71 / 0 50 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 83 62 72 / 0 40 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ250-
251-253>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ351-
354-355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ451-454-455.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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