952
FXUS64 KBRO 160352
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1052 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, AND MARKEDLY COOLER
CHANGES ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS (MARINE, BEACH,
FIRE, AND WIND) FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NORTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-55
MPH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDING A RED FLAG WARNING, WIND
ADVISORIES, GALE WARNING, HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS, THAT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOMETIME
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG
THE VALLEY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IS A STRONG, SPRAWLING 1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH WILL
RESULT IN TIGHT ISOBARS OR AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG, STIFF NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MANY COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NORTH WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-55+ MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE STRONG WINDS. THESE STRONG
WIND WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG WINDS, WE'VE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS RH VALUES DROP EVEN MORE ON TOP OF STILL
BREEZY NORTH WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
LEVELS (HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S) TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A 591 HPA HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, BETWEEN
16Z-19Z/FRI, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLD
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHERMORE, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER IN ELEVATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS
DROPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY. LIGHT TO MODERATE (STRATIFORM) RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/FRI FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OR SO
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, IN
RESPONSE AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. WINDS WILL
STEADILY UNDERGO STRENGTHENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL
CHALLENGE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RUNWAYS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE COASTAL/MARINE
HAZARDS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY (AT LEAST). A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS FROM 10AM FRIDAY TO
1PM SATURDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM 1PM FRIDAY TO 7AM SUNDAY.
FINALLY, A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
TO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 88 61 73 / 0 40 20 0
HARLINGEN 71 89 58 75 / 0 30 0 0
MCALLEN 74 90 60 76 / 0 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 87 58 75 / 0 50 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 67 73 / 0 50 20 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 62 73 / 0 40 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ248>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ250-
251-253>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ351-
354-355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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