031
FXUS64 KBRO 170336
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1036 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE;
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S;
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 70S.
- BREEZY NORTH WINDS 15-25 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON
SATURDAY.
- COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES ON SATURDAY; A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM 11AM TO 8PM.
- DANGEROUS OR HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL LEVELS; THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION REGIME, COURTESY OF STIFF BLUSTERY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AND A BROAD 1035-
1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR HAVE BEEN FALLING AND
CONTINUE TO FALL WITH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE ALSO FALLEN THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 50S
MOST PLACES (LOWER 60S ALONG THE VALLEY). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER,
THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM 11AM-8PM CDT
SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
70S AMID THE CONTINUATION OF COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ON
NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10-20F
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COOLER
THAN NORMAL NIGHT (SIMILAR TO TONIGHT) WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE AS A 591 DAM
HEAT DOME EMERGES OVERHEAD. MID-UPPER 80S TO LOW-MID 90S WILL ARRIVE
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE THE STRENGTHENING
HEAT RIDGE. MAIN RAIN-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE (NAMELY IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME). CURRENTLY,
WE HAVE LOW- MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING DURING THE DAYTIME AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
00Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH TONIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15-22
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, THOUGH STILL REMAINING
BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
DANGEROUS OR HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND THE GULF WATERS TILL 1PM SATURDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM TILL 7AM SUNDAY. FINALLY, A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN
EFFECT TILL SUNDAY MORNING (AT LEAST). SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK, ADVERSE MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH MAINLY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS OVER
THE GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 61 74 62 79 / 10 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 58 75 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 60 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 69 77 / 10 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 62 79 / 10 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ248>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ351-354-355-451-454-
455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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