126
FXUS64 KBRO 171825
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
125 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.
- BREEZY NORTH WINDS 15-25 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TONIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL LEVELS; THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING AROUND 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES USHER IN A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS VIA PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE GULF
WATER AND COASTAL ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S REGION
WIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S, BUT A FEW AREAS MAY
BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69E, BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S BY MID WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES (AROUND
20-30%) WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, EXPECT A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO NEAR 15-20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 59 78 67 83 / 0 30 10 20
HARLINGEN 56 79 63 84 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 56 80 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 53 78 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 77 72 81 / 0 40 10 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 77 67 82 / 0 30 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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