128
FXUS61 KBTV 151121
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER STARTS TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE SYSTEM TONIGHT
WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY.
SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 617 AM EST SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK WITH
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS PUT A
CAP ON JUST HOW MUCH WE WERE ABLE TO COOL OFF OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST PLACES STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SARANAC
LAKE AND NEWPORT (AND SURROUNDING AREAS). TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
HIGH CLOUDS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT'S BEEN QUITE THE CHILLY START TO THE
DAY WITH MANY PLACES SEEING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SOME CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AS A RESULT OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND HAS DRIFTED
ACROSS PLATTSBURGH. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD FALL OUT OF THIS LOW
LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS BUT YOU'D PROBABLY BE ABLE TO COUNT THE
AMOUNT OF FLURRIES ON ONE HAND. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL STIFLE
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT OVERALL A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST, WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A GRADIENT WIND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT MUCH
LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. WE ARE
STILL WATCHING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRY TO FLATTEN
THE MID- LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LATEST HRRR/HREF/NAM3 SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CLASHING WITH THE RIDGE AND BASICALLY FALLING APART AS IT SLAMS
INTO A BRICK WALL. STILL, SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT WON'T BE ANYTHING REALLY NOTEWORTHY AS WE
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FURTHER INTO WINTER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PWATS INCREASE UP TO 0.80-0.90" WITH A STRONG
55-65 KNOT 850HPA LLJ. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN, THERE'S A SLIM CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN EASTERN VERMONT BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL FROM
THE OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR NEARBY AND THE POTENTIAL CONTINGENT ON
FALLING TO 32, WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN. CONFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS WILL MAKE FOR PRECIPITATION MOST EVERYWHERE AND FAVORABLE
POSITIONING ON THE LEFT SIDE OF A 120KT UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. OVERALL, QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARDS,
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS RESOLVING TERRAIN
EFFECTS MORE CLEARLY. AT THIS STAGE, THE GUSTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER IT CAN REACH THE SURFACE. THE CORE OF THE JET
SHIFTS THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER STABLE FOR BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER. STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING
40 MPH. A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE.
IT'LL BE WARM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVENT MUCH COOLING, AND THE MAIN COLD FRONT DOESN'T CROSS
EAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID 20S TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT AS YOU WAKE UP WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL START
MAINLY DRY, BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW SPAWNS NEAR KENTUCKY ABOUT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LAUNCHES EAST. DECIDED TO ESTIMATE THE AVERAGE
SPEED THIS LOW TRAVELS BASED ON THE 00Z GFS. 24 HOURS LATER, IT WILL
ALREADY BE SITUATED EAST OF MAINE, WHICH WOULD BE AN AVERAGE SPEED
OF ABOUT 50 MPH. SO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE
GONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER AS
A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH COINCIDENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WHILE A VERY
COLD AIR MASS SHIFTS IN ALONGSIDE A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX. THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH OUR SPRINTING LOW WILL FALL AS A RAIN-
SNOW MIX BEFORE COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWS A TRANSITION TO SNOW.
LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FROM
THE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHERE OUR NORTHERN SUMMITS COULD RECEIVE A
NICE 5-10" OF FLUFFY POWDER DECREASING TO A DUSTING AT THE VALLEY
FLOOR.
THE ATMOSPHERE'S MOUNTAIN SNOW MACHINE APPEARS TO TURN OFF SOMETIME
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
ALLOWS FOR A NICE DAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER APPEARS LIKELY TO PASS
NEAR THE REGION AND DELIVER SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER WILL DEPEND ON WHAT APPEARS COULD
BE A FAIRLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLIPPER, A SHORTWAVE
RACING IN BEHIND IT, AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL GIVE THIS SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO SUSS THINGS OUT AS IT
APPEARS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL ORIGINATE FROM A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING BUT WILL POSE NO IMPACT TO AVIATION THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LAKE CLOUD REMAINS OVER KPBG WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 1000 FT. THIS CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DROP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT MANY TERMINALS
AFTER 06Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KRUT AND KSLK TONIGHT
BUT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WILL BE MINOR AT MOST GIVEN THE LIGHT
NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL
MATERIALIZE AT KBTV THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT. DEFINITE RA, CHANCE DZ.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLAY
NEAR TERM...CLAY
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...CLAY
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