178
FXUS61 KBTV 151721
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1221 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER STARTS TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE SYSTEM TONIGHT
WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY.
SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1203 PM EST SUNDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT'S BEEN QUITE THE CHILLY START TO THE
DAY WITH MANY PLACES SEEING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SOME CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AS A RESULT OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND HAS DRIFTED
ACROSS PLATTSBURGH. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD FALL OUT OF THIS LOW
LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS BUT YOU'D PROBABLY BE ABLE TO COUNT THE
AMOUNT OF FLURRIES ON ONE HAND. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL STIFLE
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT OVERALL A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST, WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A GRADIENT WIND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT MUCH
LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. WE ARE
STILL WATCHING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRY TO FLATTEN
THE MID- LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LATEST HRRR/HREF/NAM3 SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CLASHING WITH THE RIDGE AND BASICALLY FALLING APART AS IT SLAMS
INTO A BRICK WALL. STILL, SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT WON'T BE ANYTHING REALLY NOTEWORTHY AS WE
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FURTHER INTO WINTER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PWATS INCREASE UP TO 0.80-0.90" WITH A STRONG
55-65 KNOT 850HPA LLJ. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN, THERE'S A SLIM CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN EASTERN VERMONT BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL FROM
THE OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR NEARBY AND THE POTENTIAL CONTINGENT ON
FALLING TO 32, WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN. CONFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS WILL MAKE FOR PRECIPITATION MOST EVERYWHERE AND FAVORABLE
POSITIONING ON THE LEFT SIDE OF A 120KT UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. OVERALL, QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARDS,
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS RESOLVING TERRAIN
EFFECTS MORE CLEARLY. AT THIS STAGE, THE GUSTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER IT CAN REACH THE SURFACE. THE CORE OF THE JET
SHIFTS THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER STABLE FOR BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER. STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING
40 MPH. A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE.
IT'LL BE WARM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVENT MUCH COOLING, AND THE MAIN COLD FRONT DOESN'T CROSS
EAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID 20S TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT AS YOU WAKE UP WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL START
MAINLY DRY, BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW SPAWNS NEAR KENTUCKY ABOUT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LAUNCHES EAST. DECIDED TO ESTIMATE THE AVERAGE
SPEED THIS LOW TRAVELS BASED ON THE 00Z GFS. 24 HOURS LATER, IT WILL
ALREADY BE SITUATED EAST OF MAINE, WHICH WOULD BE AN AVERAGE SPEED
OF ABOUT 50 MPH. SO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE
GONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER AS
A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH COINCIDENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WHILE A VERY
COLD AIR MASS SHIFTS IN ALONGSIDE A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX. THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH OUR SPRINTING LOW WILL FALL AS A RAIN-
SNOW MIX BEFORE COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWS A TRANSITION TO SNOW.
LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FROM
THE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHERE OUR NORTHERN SUMMITS COULD RECEIVE A
NICE 5-10" OF FLUFFY POWDER DECREASING TO A DUSTING AT THE VALLEY
FLOOR.
THE ATMOSPHERE'S MOUNTAIN SNOW MACHINE APPEARS TO TURN OFF SOMETIME
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
ALLOWS FOR A NICE DAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER APPEARS LIKELY TO PASS
NEAR THE REGION AND DELIVER SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER WILL DEPEND ON WHAT APPEARS COULD
BE A FAIRLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLIPPER, A SHORTWAVE
RACING IN BEHIND IT, AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL GIVE THIS SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO SUSS THINGS OUT AS IT
APPEARS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL ORIGINATE FROM A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 5-15 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH GUSTS AT BTV 15-25 KNOTS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z
MONDAY. MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 05Z-10Z MONDAY, THOUGH THESE LOWER CEILINGS
MAY HOLD OFF IN SOME AREAS (E.G. EFK) UNTIL AROUND 15Z MONDAY.
LOW PROBABILITIES 20-40% OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
03Z-18Z MONDAY, EXACT TIMING DEPENDING ON THE INDIVIDUAL TAF
SITES AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF US. MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE SNOW WILL BE RUT, AS
IT IS FARTHEST SOUTH AND CLOSEST TO THE LOW. PRECISE
VISIBILITIES NOT YET DETERMINED, BUT THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH VIS 5+ MILES. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WE MAY GET MORE
DETAILS ON DECREASING VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FOR MOST SITES. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, MAINLY
FROM 05Z-08Z ONWARD IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT. DEFINITE RA, CHANCE DZ.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
PLATTSBURGH ASOS IS MISSING VISIBILITY IN REPORTS AND IS
AWAITING A PART TO FIX THIS ISSUE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FEBRUARY 1.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLAY
NEAR TERM...CLAY/STORM
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...STORM
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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