688
FXUS61 KBTV 170541
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A FEW POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S BY
TUESDAY, BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST TUESDAY...RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
NOW. THERE ARE STILL A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN EASTERN VERMONT
SITTING RIGHT AT 32, BUT AS THIS OCCLUDED BOUNDARY RAPIDLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION, WE'VE
OBSERVED PLENTY OF 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS. SO FAR, MALONE'S HIGHEST
GUST HAS BEEN 47 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL SERVE AS A STABILIZING
INFLUENCE FOR A BIT, BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN ACTIVITY. KTYX VADS
INDICATE 55 KNOT WINDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL. SO DOWNSLOPE GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY WHENEVER BREAKS DEVELOP.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, SFC ANALYSIS
PLACES WARM FRNT FEATURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE HIGH PRES
OFF THE NE CONUS COAST IS HELPING TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THIS AFTN. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 0C, MAY PRODUCE A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU 11 PM, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A SPS. TEMPS
EVENTUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AFT
MIDNIGHT.
AS SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD OUR FA, THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
ASSOCIATED WITH 1036MB HIGH PRES OFF THE NE CONUS COAST, WHICH
RESULTS IN QUICKLY INCREASING 925MB TO 850MB WIND FIELDS. GUIDANCE
CONTS TO SHOW 850MB WINDS OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS, WHILE 925MB WINDS ARE
55 TO 60 KNOTS ACRS THE NORTHERN DOWNSLOPES OF THE DACKS AND SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CPV TONIGHT AROUND 06Z. GIVEN THIS SIGNAL,
COMBINED WITH HREF PROB OF SFC WIND GUSTS >45 MPH AT 80 TO 100% WIND
ADVISORY CONTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. HOWEVER, I HAVE TO ADMIT,
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW RATHER LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. FOR TUESDAY AS
COOLING ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BL WARMS INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F, SFC TO
850MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE
SFC IMPROVES, SUPPORTING LOCALIZED GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH EASTERN DACKS
AND EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN GREENS IN VT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SHARP INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH LIKELY ACRS MOST OF OUR
CWA. EVEN WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT ON TUES, TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F MOST LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN
VT.
RAINFALL IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WL PRODUCE A QPF SHADOW HERE IN THE CPV. FURTHERMORE, A
QUICKLY DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WL RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z TUES.
GENERALLY THINKING A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACRS THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS WESTERN CPV TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS HIGH PEAKS AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
WEAK LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY LIMITS ADDITIONAL PRECIP/QPF ON TUES
ACRS OUR FA.
TUESDAY NIGHT IS QUIET WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
MTNS AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S MTNS TO MID 30S CPV.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 352 PM EST MONDAY...A SEASONAL START TO WEDNESDAY QUICKLY TURNS
DREARY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP COOLER AIR AT BAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS A QUICK MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT VALLEYS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT RAIN
INITIALLY, WE EXPECT ALL TO SEE A SWITCH TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS TO START WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE REALM
OF 3-5:1 IN SOUTHERN VT AND CLOSER TO 8-10:1 IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VT WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER, IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE MUCH FASTER, HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WHILE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL, WE ARE EXPECTING 3-5" BELOW
1500 FT WITH SUMMITS SEEING BETWEEN 6-10".
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN GREEN AND
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS
TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
1-3" FROM THIS UPSLOPE FLOW. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY LOOKS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WHILE INSTABILITY, AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION LOOK CONDUCIVE, WEAK SURFACE AND
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD LIMIT ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE RATHER QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING WEAK SYSTEM ROLLS IN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 352 PM EST MONDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH
A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCOMPLISHING ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AS
IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AND A COASTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE CLIPPER GRADUALLY DECAYS SATURDAY MORNING OVERHEAD OF THE AREA
LEAVING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE GREEN AND ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS AND LOW-TO-MID-TEENS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WERE NUDGED TOWARDS THE NBM25TH-PERCENTILE AS MODELS SEEMINGLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE COOL AIR DRAINAGE FROM CANADA UNDER NORTHERLY
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER CONTINUING THE COOLING
TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE SOME 4-6SM VISIBILITIES AND
1500-2500 FT AGL CEILINGS, DOWN TO 800 FT AGL LOCALLY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. KTYX VADS INDICATE 55 KNOTS WINDS AT 4000 FT AGL,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DESCEND THROUGH ABOUT 10-12Z.
LLWS IS NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS, IN ADDITION TO SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN BEYOND 12Z, PARTICULARLY
NEAR KSLK AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL. MOST WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS, BUT KMSS AND KSLK MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BEYOND 12Z AS WELL. AFTER 00Z,
WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY MORNING AND
DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET WILL BUILD 3 TO 6
FEET TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>003-016.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ027-028-030-
031-034.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/MYSKOWSKI/TABER
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...TEAM BTV
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