562
FXUS61 KBTV 170838
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION WILL TREND INCREASINGLY SCATTERED AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN MAINLY DRY BEFORE SNOW AND RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ELEVATION DEPENDENT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL,
MAINLY ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS TO MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. AFTER ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE READINGS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
VERMONT THROUGH 4 PM.
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
SHARP OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. RADAR VADS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 45 TO 55 KNOT WINDS ALOFT, BUT MODELS HAVE
SLIGHTLY PULLED BACK ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER JET, MAINLY
TOPPING AT 60 KNOTS AS OPPOSED TO 65 KNOTS. AT THIS STAGE, WE'VE
OBSERVED SEVERAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 47 MPH ALONG NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN SOME OF THE GAP REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS, LIKE WESTFIELD. AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, WIND GUSTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HELD BACK BY ITS
STABILIZING INFLUENCE. SO WE SHOULD BE IN A BIT OF A LULL UNTIL
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF VERMONT ABOUT 7 AM. THEN, STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND PRESSURE RISES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
IT'S NOT THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALL AND RISE COUPLET, BUT IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH THAT AREAS LIKE MALONE AND ELLENBURG COULD
CONTINUE GUSTING TO ABOUT 45 MPH THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR CHANCE REMAINS ALONG NORTH-SOUTH GAPS AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE GREENS, BUT THE CHANCES ARE APPEARING
A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TODAY. FOR NOW, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
HEADLINES.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST, AND THEN WE'LL BE LEFT WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND SOME OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON COULD DRIVE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS, AND SO THERE'S A LOT OF
"TOKEN 10S" FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUTSIDE ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND SHIFT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SOUTH
AND WE DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION PUSHING US INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN
MAINLY DRY. DESPITE SOUTH FLOW RETURNING, THERE'S NOT MUCH WARM AIR
TO OUR SOUTH, AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO MAKE FOR
LITTLE HEATING. WE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S TO ABOUT 40. THEN,
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM A VERY FAST TRACKING
SURFACE LOW BY EVENING. WET-BULB COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY RESULT IN
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT THE BROADER VALLEYS WILL TAKE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MAKE A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT, WITH THE BROAD VALLEYS SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE
ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHER SUMMITS SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES
WHILE THE BROAD VALLEYS SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR EXPECTED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF IT FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING US AS IT
MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. BY THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CONTINUED COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE SOME 4-6SM VISIBILITIES AND
1500-2500 FT AGL CEILINGS, DOWN TO 800 FT AGL LOCALLY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. KTYX VADS INDICATE 55 KNOTS WINDS AT 4000 FT AGL,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DESCEND THROUGH ABOUT 10-12Z.
LLWS IS NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS, IN ADDITION TO SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN BEYOND 12Z, PARTICULARLY
NEAR KSLK AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL. MOST WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS, BUT KMSS AND KSLK MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BEYOND 12Z AS WELL. AFTER 00Z,
WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE REMAIN
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AND DECREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET WILL BUILD 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>003-016.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ027-028-030-
031-034.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...TEAM BTV
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