257
FXUS61 KBTV 171423
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
923 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION WILL TREND INCREASINGLY SCATTERED AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN MAINLY DRY BEFORE SNOW AND RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ELEVATION DEPENDENT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL,
MAINLY ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS TO MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. AFTER ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE READINGS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 919 AM EST TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE
WIND ADVISORY, AS JAY VTRANS SITE HAS GUSTED TO 54 MPH IN THE
PAST HOUR. CORE OF THE STRONGEST 850MB WINDS OF NEAR 50 KNOTS IS
DEPARTING NORTHERN VT ATTM, BUT MIXING SHOULD IMPROVE SO A FEW
GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. LATEST 12Z HRRR SUPPORTS SOME ADDITIONAL GUSTS IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS MORNING WITH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
LOWER 50S, LIKE PBG. ALL COVERED VERY WELL IN FCST WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 4
PM.
THE BULK OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE'S A WEAK
INVERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY PREVENTING GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE
GROUND, BUT THIS INVERSION SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP ABOUT 8 AM AS STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND PRESSURE RISES ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
45, PERHAPS NEAR 50 AGAIN. THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS SOME NORTH-SOUTH
GAPS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHIFTING THE CORE OF THE JET
THROUGH FASTER, AND WILL MAINTAIN A WATCH ON ITS PROGRESS EAST.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND SOME OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
COULD DRIVE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS, AND SO THERE'S A LOT OF "TOKEN
10S" FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUTSIDE ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND SHIFT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE LAKE EFFECT
SOUTH AND WE DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION PUSHING US
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN MAINLY DRY. DESPITE SOUTH FLOW RETURNING, THERE'S NOT
MUCH WARM AIR TO OUR SOUTH, AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO MAKE FOR LITTLE HEATING. WE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID
30S TO ABOUT 40. THEN, PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM
A VERY FAST TRACKING SURFACE LOW BY EVENING. WET-BULB COOLING
SHOULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT THE
BROADER VALLEYS WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MAKE A
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT, WITH THE BROAD VALLEYS SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE
ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHER SUMMITS SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES
WHILE THE BROAD VALLEYS SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR EXPECTED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF IT FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING US AS IT
MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. BY THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CONTINUED COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING. WIND GUSTS HAVE NOT PICKED UP
VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT, AND REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 14 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS 18 TO 25 KNOTS AT VARIOUS TERMINALS. LLWS REMAINS AS
A RESULT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BEYOND
18Z COINCIDENT WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH IT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. A
HANDFUL OF SITES HAVE A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS NOTED RANGING FROM
17Z TO 01Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR BEYOND 12Z AS WELL, BUT MAY REVERSE COURSE BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT. AFTER 00Z, WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TO 6 TO 9
KNOTS, AND ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE REMAIN
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AND DECREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET WILL BUILD 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>003-016.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ027-028-030-
031-034.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/TABER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...TEAM BTV
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