907
FXUS61 KBTV 171715
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1215 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION WILL TREND INCREASINGLY SCATTERED AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN MAINLY DRY BEFORE SNOW AND RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ELEVATION DEPENDENT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL,
MAINLY ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS TO MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. AFTER ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE READINGS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1206 PM EST TUESDAY...UPDATED TO CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT, AS SFC OBS SHOW MOST GUSTS
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, TEMPS WL SLOWLY COOL THIS AFTN,
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH SOME LINGERING/LEFTOVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WE DID HIT 53F HERE AT THE BTV AIRPORT
EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE SINCE DROPPED 49F. REST OF FCST
IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
THE BULK OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE'S A WEAK
INVERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY PREVENTING GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE
GROUND, BUT THIS INVERSION SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP ABOUT 8 AM AS
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND PRESSURE RISES ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 45, PERHAPS NEAR 50 AGAIN. THE FOCUS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS
SOME NORTH-SOUTH GAPS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHIFTING THE CORE
OF THE JET THROUGH FASTER, AND WILL MAINTAIN A WATCH ON ITS
PROGRESS EAST.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND SOME OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
COULD DRIVE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS, AND SO THERE'S A LOT OF "TOKEN
10S" FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUTSIDE ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND SHIFT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE LAKE EFFECT
SOUTH AND WE DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION PUSHING US
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN MAINLY DRY. DESPITE SOUTH FLOW RETURNING, THERE'S NOT
MUCH WARM AIR TO OUR SOUTH, AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO MAKE FOR LITTLE HEATING. WE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID
30S TO ABOUT 40. THEN, PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM
A VERY FAST TRACKING SURFACE LOW BY EVENING. WET-BULB COOLING
SHOULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT THE
BROADER VALLEYS WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MAKE A
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT, WITH THE BROAD VALLEYS SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE
ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHER SUMMITS SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES
WHILE THE BROAD VALLEYS SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR EXPECTED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF IT FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING US AS IT
MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. BY THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CONTINUED COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT MVFR AT
SLK CURRENTLY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR/TURBULENCE SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTN, AS
CORE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT EAST OF OUR TAF SITES. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VIS/CIGS AT SLK BTWN
22Z-02Z. OTHERWISE, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW DEVELOPING INVERSION, FEEL CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
CATEGORY AT OUR MOUNTAIN SITES BY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR
ELSEWHERE. A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN OVERSPREADS OUR TAF SITES
TOWARD 18Z WEDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND SHOULD DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNSET. WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO A
FOOT OR LESS BY TONIGHT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/TABER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...TEAM BTV
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