881
FXUS61 KBTV 172014
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE TERRAIN, BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULUTION IS ANTICIPATED. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH A SLUSHY COATING NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TO 4 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDS AFTN INTO WEDS NIGHT, WHICH WL CREATE SOME AREAS OF SLICK
TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET. A SHARP
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM A SLUSHY COATING
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TO 4 TO 5 INCHES ACRS THE SUMMITS.
WEAK SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ANY PRECIP WL BE MINOR THRU THIS EVENING. THE CORE OF
STRONGEST 925MB TO 850MB WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST AND COMBINED
WITH INCREASED STABILITY PARAMETERS, WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MIXING SO NOT COMPLETELY CALM,
WHICH WL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACRS OUR FA.
FOR WEDS OUR SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS CRNTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE NE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY 700-500MB WINDS OF 60 TO 90 KNOTS, WHICH
WL RACE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. LATEST TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BEST 700MB FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED UVV
FIELDS. ANOTHER MINOR TREND HAS BEEN FOR PREICP TO ARRIVE 1 TO 3
HOURS EARLIER ON WEDS, BUT ALSO DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 08Z THURS.
INITIALLY BL TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS
WITH GFS/NAM SHOWING BL TEMPS NEAR 4C. HOWEVER, AS SOME
EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL COOLING OCCURS BL TEMPS DROP TO 32-34F
BY EVENING, SUPPORTING SOME WET/SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES. STILL FEEL WE HAVE A 1 TO 2 HOUR WINDOW WITH MODERATE
DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A QUICK COATING TO 1 INCH LOCALLY HERE IN THE BTV AREA ON
WEDS EVENING. GIVEN MARGINAL BL TEMPS STILL ANTICIPATING A SHARP
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FROM A SLUSHY COATING NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TO 1 INCH HERE AT BTV TO 2 INCHES WILLISTON/ESSEX TO 4 TO
5 INCHES KILLINGTON TO MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK SPINE OF THE GREENS. IN
NY A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH A DUSTING TO 1 INCH SLV/WESTERN SIDE OF
THE CPV TO 4 TO 5 INCHES HIGH PEAKS OF ESSEX COUNTY. AFTER A MILD
START TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT ONCE PRECIP
ARRIVES SHOULD COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO L/M 30S BY SUNSET.
PRIMARY IMPACT WL BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF SLICK TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY ON
ANY UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END AT OR A LITTLE AFT MIDNIGHT ON
WEDS NIGHT. BL TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO AFT THE
PRECIP ENDS, GIVEN THE LIMITED ADVECTION. LOWS WEDS NIGHT MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S BY THURS AM. NO PLANS OF ISSUING WINTER WX ADVISORY AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TRRN ABOVE 2000 FEET.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
AS DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
COULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S ON FRIDAY AS NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS SET IN.
A BRIEF CLIPPER WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, STARVED OF MOISTURE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND, ITS IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS
NEAR 15-18:1 IN MOST PLACES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATED
PROFILES, LIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH AN
ALSO DRY SURFACE, FINDING ANY MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THESE SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MOST AREAS IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING TO AN INCH. SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS,
YOUR BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM ANY SNOW THAT FALLS FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW UNTIL
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON DIMINSHING
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER THE HIGH
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY
BRINGING COLD CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM QUEBEC BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE 25TH-PERCENTILE OF THE NBM AS
A RESULT OF THIS COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOW-TEENS ACROSS THE
WHOLE REGION ON SUNDAY. NEAR-ZERO LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. CALM AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO START
NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE PHASING OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE.
THE GFS PHASES THE CLIPPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE YIELDING A SINGLE
SYSTEM WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
INDICATES A FASTER MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH UNDERCUTS THE
SHORTWAVE FOR POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT MVFR AT
SLK CURRENTLY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR/TURBULENCE SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTN, AS
CORE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT EAST OF OUR TAF SITES. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VIS/CIGS AT SLK BTWN
22Z-02Z. OTHERWISE, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW DEVELOPING INVERSION, FEEL CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
CATEGORY AT OUR MOUNTAIN SITES BY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR
ELSEWHERE. A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN OVERSPREADS OUR TAF SITES
TOWARD 18Z WEDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...TABER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page