436
FXUS61 KBTV 180226
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE TERRAIN, BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ELEVATIONAL
DEPENDENT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A SLUSHY COATING NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TO 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 923 PM EST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS SETTLING
DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, LEAVING JUST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS IN TERRAIN AND ISOLATED DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OVERPERFORM OUR FORECAST, AND THEREFORE OBSERVED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDS AFTN INTO WEDS NIGHT, WHICH WL CREATE SOME AREAS OF SLICK
TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET. A
SHARP ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM A
SLUSHY COATING NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TO 4 TO 5 INCHES ACRS THE
SUMMITS.
WEAK SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ANY PRECIP WL BE MINOR THRU THIS EVENING. THE CORE OF
STRONGEST 925MB TO 850MB WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST AND COMBINED
WITH INCREASED STABILITY PARAMETERS, WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MIXING SO NOT COMPLETELY CALM,
WHICH WL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACRS OUR FA.
FOR WEDS OUR SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS CRNTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE NE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY 700-500MB WINDS OF 60 TO 90 KNOTS, WHICH
WL RACE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. LATEST TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BEST 700MB FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED UVV
FIELDS. ANOTHER MINOR TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO ARRIVE 1 TO
3 HOURS EARLIER ON WEDS, BUT ALSO DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 08Z
THURS. INITIALLY BL TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS WITH GFS/NAM SHOWING BL TEMPS NEAR 4C. HOWEVER, AS
SOME EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL COOLING OCCURS BL TEMPS DROP TO
32-34F BY EVENING, SUPPORTING SOME WET/SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY SURFACES. STILL FEEL WE HAVE A 1 TO 2 HOUR WINDOW
WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL
RATES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A QUICK COATING TO 1 INCH LOCALLY HERE
IN THE BTV AREA ON WEDS EVENING. GIVEN MARGINAL BL TEMPS STILL
ANTICIPATING A SHARP ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FROM A
SLUSHY COATING NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TO 1 INCH HERE AT BTV TO 2
INCHES WILLISTON/ESSEX TO 4 TO 5 INCHES KILLINGTON TO MANSFIELD
TO JAY PEAK SPINE OF THE GREENS. IN NY A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH A
DUSTING TO 1 INCH SLV/WESTERN SIDE OF THE CPV TO 4 TO 5 INCHES
HIGH PEAKS OF ESSEX COUNTY. AFTER A MILD START TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT ONCE PRECIP ARRIVES SHOULD COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO L/M 30S BY SUNSET. PRIMARY IMPACT WL
BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF SLICK TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED
ROAD SURFACES DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP
SHOULD QUICKLY END AT OR A LITTLE AFT MIDNIGHT ON WEDS NIGHT. BL
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO AFT THE PRECIP ENDS,
GIVEN THE LIMITED ADVECTION. LOWS WEDS NIGHT MID 20S TO LOWER
30S BY THURS AM. NO PLANS OF ISSUING WINTER WX ADVISORY AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TRRN ABOVE 2000 FEET.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
AS DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
COULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S ON FRIDAY AS NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS SET IN.
A BRIEF CLIPPER WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, STARVED OF MOISTURE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND, ITS IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS
NEAR 15-18:1 IN MOST PLACES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATED
PROFILES, LIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH AN
ALSO DRY SURFACE, FINDING ANY MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THESE SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MOST AREAS IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING TO AN INCH. SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS,
YOUR BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM ANY SNOW THAT FALLS FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW UNTIL
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS
UNDER THE HIGH BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHERLY BRINGING COLD CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM
QUEBEC BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
25TH-PERCENTILE OF THE NBM AS A RESULT OF THIS COLD AIR DRAINAGE
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE THE LOW-TEENS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION ON SUNDAY. NEAR-
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
CALM AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO START NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE PHASING OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE.
THE GFS PHASES THE CLIPPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE YIELDING A SINGLE
SYSTEM WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
INDICATES A FASTER MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH UNDERCUTS THE
SHORTWAVE FOR POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY OR LOWER
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, LEADING TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER IN THE NIGHT. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO
IFR AT SLK BUT THAT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AT SLK THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
TIME REGARDLESS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHTEN A BIT AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON. TOMORROW MORNING CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE A LITTLE BIT,
AND THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME VFR OUTSIDE SLK. AN AREA OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL
BE SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES OF SLK, MPV,
EFK WHILE IT WILL LIKELY START AT RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW AT
MSS, RUT, PBG AND BTV. THE RAIN WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES BUT THE SNOW WILL DROP VISIBILITIES
TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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