146
FXUS61 KBTV 181127
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
SNOW AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN ELEVATION DEPENDENT ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL BE LIKELY
THIS EVENING IN SNOW, BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER
2000 FOOT IN ELEVATION POSSIBLE. AFTER ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE READINGS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE
RAPIDLY TRANSLATING SURFACE LOW AND THE BRIEF INTERVAL OR RAIN AND
SNOW IT BRINGS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A DEGREE WARMER OR SO FOR
TODAY, ALONG WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
PLACES MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION IN A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE WE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THE OTHER HAND, TRENDS FOR MORE
SHARPLY FOCUSED FORCING OVER CENTRAL VERMONT SUGGESTS THERE IS A
MODEST CHANCE FOR SOME FASTER ACCUMULATIONS THAT OVERCOME THE RATE
OF MELTING. GIVEN WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, MOST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL FAVOR GRASSY, ELEVATED SURFACES. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN A
SHORT WINDOW OF TIME BETWEEN 6 AND 11 PM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT,
WHICH IS WHEN RATES COULD APPROACH 1"/HR. FOR THIS REASON, TRENDED
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT TOWARDS THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR TOTALS. STILL,
ANY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON PRECIPITATION FALLING
MAINLY AS SNOW, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE SNOW LOADING
IMPACTS, AS WELL AS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THAT TIME FRAME.
OVERALL, AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-4", LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS IN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT, AND THEN
SUMMIT LEVEL VALUES UP TO 7- 8" FOR MT. MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK.
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING TOWARDS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PRE-DAWN
THURSDAY. THE FASTER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MEANS FEWER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
COMBAT ANY HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED EARLY IN THE
MORNING, WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S HOLDING STEADY MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 323 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END
EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE FOR
LATE DECEMBER, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS UNDER
NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLUFFY SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW RATIOS NEAR
18:1 IN MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. AS
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO THE REGION, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 323 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, BRING UNSEASONABLE COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY
WILL BE EVEN COOLER, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS.
THE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHING EASTWARD MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW
IT WILL PLAY OUT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY, BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KNOTS, AND
COULD BRIEFLY TREND CALM WITH INCOMING SNOW BEFORE SHIFT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY. A FAST INCOMING SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SPREAD A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z
THURSDAY. THE TIME FRAME OF POOREST VISIBILITY AND LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z. BEYOND 06Z,
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS MAY
INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT KSLK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MVFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES
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