286
FXUS61 KBTV 181807
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
SNOW AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN ELEVATION DEPENDENT ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL BE LIKELY
THIS EVENING IN SNOW, BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER
2000 FOOT IN ELEVATION POSSIBLE. AFTER ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE READINGS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 107 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME WEATHER CHANGES, INCLUDING
POPS, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND SNOWFALL, WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST DATA. NO
BIG CHANGES, BUT OVERALL THERE'S A LEAN TOWARDS MORE RAIN, OR AT
LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOME OTHER
LOWER ELEVATIONS IN VERMONT, THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH
WORKED TO CUT BACK ON THE DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNT IN THESE
AREAS. A COLD, LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING INTO
PLATTSBURGH ALREADY; MEANWHILE, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO
SPIT IN THE ADIRONDACK REGION. SNOW LEVELS SEEM TO BE GENERALLY
ABOUT 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION RIGHT NOW, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE RAPIDLY TRANSLATING SURFACE
LOW AND THE BRIEF INTERVAL OR RAIN AND SNOW IT BRINGS. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED A DEGREE WARMER OR SO FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH A FASTER
ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION. THIS PLACES MORE OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE WE WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THE OTHER HAND, TRENDS FOR MORE SHARPLY
FOCUSED FORCING OVER CENTRAL VERMONT SUGGESTS THERE IS A MODEST
CHANCE FOR SOME FASTER ACCUMULATIONS THAT OVERCOME THE RATE OF
MELTING. GIVEN WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, MOST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL FAVOR GRASSY, ELEVATED SURFACES. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN
A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME BETWEEN 6 AND 11 PM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT, WHICH IS WHEN RATES COULD APPROACH 1"/HR. FOR THIS
REASON, TRENDED SOUTH- CENTRAL VERMONT TOWARDS THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR TOTALS. STILL, ANY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON PRECIPITATION FALLING MAINLY AS SNOW, BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME NUISANCE SNOW LOADING IMPACTS, AS WELL AS SOME
SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THAT TIME FRAME. OVERALL, AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1-4", LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS IN NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT, AND THEN SUMMIT LEVEL VALUES
UP TO 7- 8" FOR MT. MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK.
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING TOWARDS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PRE-DAWN
THURSDAY. THE FASTER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MEANS FEWER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
COMBAT ANY HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED EARLY IN THE
MORNING, WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S HOLDING STEADY MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 323 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END
EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE FOR
LATE DECEMBER, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS UNDER
NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLUFFY SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW RATIOS NEAR
18:1 IN MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. AS
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO THE REGION, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 323 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, BRING UNSEASONABLE COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY
WILL BE EVEN COOLER, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS.
THE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHING EASTWARD MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW
IT WILL PLAY OUT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 8 TO 12 HOURS, LEADING TO
POOR VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 20Z AND
04Z. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON BOTH ELEVATION AND
PRECIPITATION RATE; SNOW LEVELS WILL TEND TO LOWER IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION, WHICH MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO INDICATE A
PREVAILING VISIBILITY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT ALL SNOW AT SLK,
MOSTLY RAIN AT BTV AND PBG, A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION AT MSS,
MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME RAIN MIX AT EFK AND MPV, AND RAIN WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW AT RUT. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z, AND ACROSS VERMONT BETWEEN
02 AND 05Z. AFTER A LULL, SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES
COULD OCCUR AT SLK, AND POSSIBLY AT EFK, THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES ELSEWHERE ARE TOO LOW TO
INDICATE AT THIS TIME.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY, BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KNOTS,
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME WITH SOME MODEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES/KUTIKOFF
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