143
FXUS61 KBTV 191445
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS THIS MORNING, DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS SETTLING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 945 AM EST THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
WHICH EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE MORE PROLIFIC IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT OF NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS DRIVING MODEST CELLULAR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY VERGING ON
SNOW SQUALLS. GIVEN HOW SHALLOW THESE SHOWERS ARE, CHANCES OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IS LIMITED. HOWEVER,
WE HAVE SEEN RAPID CHANGES IN CONDITIONS WITH QUICK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS VIA WEBCAMS IN THE DERBY AND CANAAN, AND HERE AT
BTV VISIBILITIES QUICKLY CAME DOWN TO 2 MILES WITH A SNOW SHOWER
AT THIS MOMENT. ONCE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM ARRIVES, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS COME
TO AN END AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD, SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION, WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS UNDER NORTHERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE REGION, WHILE ANOTHER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE,
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS
SYSTEM HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S, JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
VERMONT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR
CONTINUED SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ONGOING SNOWFALL. WHILE MOISTURE
IS ANEMIC, SNOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SLOW BUT CONSISTENT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOTICEABLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING SHARPLY AS WELL WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SATURDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOW/MID 20S. BREEZES
WILL BE BRISK AS WELL OUT OF THE NORTH, GUSTING 15-25 MPH CREATING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS STRONG FOR AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PROGGED SLP OF 1030-1040MB ARE
COMMON ACROSS MODEL SUITES WITH SOME MODEST TIMING VARIANCES FOR
WHEN THE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. EITHER WAY, THE MESSAGE IS
THAT FRIGID WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH BREEZES
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000FT, -10 TO -15 APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0 TO -10
APPARENT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND A FRESH SNOW PACK FOR MOST SPOTS.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0 TO MID TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING IN LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0 TO -15 FOR COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. CLOUD COVER MAY
BE A FOIL WITH MODEL TIMING VARIANCES OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS POINTING TO A MODEST CHANCE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE NO STRONG SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
PROBABLE ONCE THE HIGH CLEARS OUT BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARDS MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW PROMOTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY CHRISTMAS
DAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME MODELS SUPPORTING ENOUGH WARMING FOR RAIN CHANCES AND
OTHERS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOUND AT TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOUND WITHIN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. KSLK AND KEFK WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
TERRAIN FOCUSED, BUT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL TERMINALS TRENDING TOWARDS VFR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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