272
FXUS61 KBTV 191759
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1259 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS THIS MORNING, DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS SETTLING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1258 PM EST THURSDAY...AS EXPECTED, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS QUICKLY DWINDLED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AT THIS HOUR.
THAT BEING SAID, THE SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE VALLEY, WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING OBSERVED AT THE
MIDDLEBURY STATE AIRPORT OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. FLURRIES ARE
BEING NOTED ELSEWHERE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS MONTPELIER AND
NEWPORT, SO HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 80%.
DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS COME
TO AN END AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD, SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION, WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS UNDER NORTHERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE REGION, WHILE ANOTHER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE,
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS
SYSTEM HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S, JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
VERMONT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR
CONTINUED SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ONGOING SNOWFALL. WHILE MOISTURE
IS ANEMIC, SNOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SLOW BUT CONSISTENT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOTICEABLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING SHARPLY AS WELL WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SATURDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOW/MID 20S. BREEZES
WILL BE BRISK AS WELL OUT OF THE NORTH, GUSTING 15-25 MPH CREATING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS STRONG FOR AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PROGGED SLP OF 1030-1040MB ARE
COMMON ACROSS MODEL SUITES WITH SOME MODEST TIMING VARIANCES FOR
WHEN THE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. EITHER WAY, THE MESSAGE IS
THAT FRIGID WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH BREEZES
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000FT, -10 TO -15 APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0 TO -10
APPARENT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND A FRESH SNOW PACK FOR MOST SPOTS.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0 TO MID TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING IN LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0 TO -15 FOR COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. CLOUD COVER MAY
BE A FOIL WITH MODEL TIMING VARIANCES OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS POINTING TO A MODEST CHANCE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE NO STRONG SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
PROBABLE ONCE THE HIGH CLEARS OUT BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARDS MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW PROMOTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY CHRISTMAS
DAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME MODELS SUPPORTING ENOUGH WARMING FOR RAIN CHANCES AND
OTHERS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AS CLOUD BASES RANGE
FROM ABOUT 2500 TO 4000 FEET AT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE
FROM AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY GIVING RUT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, FLURRIES WILL BE NON-
CONSEQUENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A STEADIER SNOW
RETURNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF THIS LIGHT SNOW KEEPS A PROB 30 MENTION AT THIS TIME,
BUT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH THAT IF IT BEGINS EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BREEZY IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR
GUSTS AT MANY TERMINALS, AND THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH DECREASES AND
SOME RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT, WHICH SUGGESTS LIGHT SPEEDS AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT
AT MSS AND RUT, WHERE TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 12Z
INTO THE 7 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
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