461
FXUS61 KBTV 200913
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO
ARRIVE MONDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL START OFF
RELATIVELY QUIET YET CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD LIGHT, STRATIFORM SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING
THE MOST PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND FLUFFY IN CHARACTER, WITH SLRS GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 15-20:1. WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, SO
MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE AWARE BEFORE TRAVELING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. WITH SUCH HIGH SNOW RATIOS, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY AFTER
THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ENDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COLDER, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES, VERY COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT
CONTRIBUTING TO QUITE COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH START A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
DOWN TO AROUND -20 DEGREES FOR EXPOSED SLOPES IN VERMONT AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE HIGHER GREENS, BUT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WINDS DROP OFF.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH 1030- 1040MB HIGH TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS FOR BROADER VALLEYS WITH POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF BROADER
VALLEYS. RIDGING CRESTS OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AROUND ZERO FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE, AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WITH
-5 TO -15 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. WE'LL NEED TO WATCH SARANAC LAKE
CLOSELY, THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL AID IN DEEPENING THE COLD POOL AND
COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW -20.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM IS BEING PRESENTED IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH COULD IMPACT
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. INITIAL ESTIMATES FOR FORCING ALONG THIS WAVE
LOOKS ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT A FEW SQUALL-LIKE
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE QPF WILL NOT BE LARGE,
HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. TIMING VARIANCES
ARE STILL MODERATE BETWEEN MODEL SUITES, SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
EVOLUTION MORE CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT MODELS
HAVE BACKED UP ON THE RAPID WARMUP THAT WAS PRESENTED 24HRS AGO. AS
SUCH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR CONTINUED SNOW POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE OF KEEPING SOME SNOW ON
THE GROUND INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS INDICATING A GOOD SHOT
AT A WHITE CHRISTMAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THOSE
WITH POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR FOR THE LATE
WEEK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO SYSTEM TIMING. SOME RUNS
HAVE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A LOW PASSING WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING VERMONT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW. THE TRACK
IMPLICATIONS WILL BE LARGE AND CONTROL THE FLAVOR OF SYSTEM THAT
OCCURS, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THERE WILL BE BIG CHANGES BASED ON HOW THE FORECAST TRACK EVOLVES.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AS LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES
WILL LIKELY DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM, BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, GENERALLY
DROPPING TO MVFR ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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