300
FXUS61 KBTV 201142
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO
ARRIVE MONDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EST FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS
MORNING UPDATE, JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY
SITTING IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL START OFF
RELATIVELY QUIET YET CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD LIGHT, STRATIFORM
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING THE MOST PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
THE SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND FLUFFY IN CHARACTER, WITH SLRS
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 15-20:1. WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE, SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE AWARE BEFORE
TRAVELING. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH SUCH HIGH SNOW RATIOS, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY AFTER
THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ENDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COLDER, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES, VERY COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT
CONTRIBUTING TO QUITE COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH START A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
DOWN TO AROUND -20 DEGREES FOR EXPOSED SLOPES IN VERMONT AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE HIGHER GREENS, BUT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WINDS DROP OFF.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH 1030- 1040MB HIGH TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS FOR BROADER VALLEYS WITH POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF BROADER
VALLEYS. RIDGING CRESTS OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AROUND ZERO FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE, AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WITH
-5 TO -15 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. WE'LL NEED TO WATCH SARANAC LAKE
CLOSELY, THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL AID IN DEEPENING THE COLD POOL AND
COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW -20.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM IS BEING PRESENTED IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH COULD IMPACT
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. INITIAL ESTIMATES FOR FORCING ALONG THIS WAVE
LOOKS ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT A FEW SQUALL-LIKE
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE QPF WILL NOT BE LARGE,
HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. TIMING VARIANCES
ARE STILL MODERATE BETWEEN MODEL SUITES, SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
EVOLUTION MORE CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT MODELS
HAVE BACKED UP ON THE RAPID WARMUP THAT WAS PRESENTED 24HRS AGO. AS
SUCH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR CONTINUED SNOW POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE OF KEEPING SOME SNOW ON
THE GROUND INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS INDICATING A GOOD SHOT
AT A WHITE CHRISTMAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THOSE
WITH POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR FOR THE LATE
WEEK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO SYSTEM TIMING. SOME RUNS
HAVE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A LOW PASSING WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING VERMONT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW. THE TRACK
IMPLICATIONS WILL BE LARGE AND CONTROL THE FLAVOR OF SYSTEM THAT
OCCURS, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THERE WILL BE BIG CHANGES BASED ON HOW THE FORECAST TRACK EVOLVES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP
BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM, BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER
WITH THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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