740
FXUS61 KBTV 201425
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO
ARRIVE MONDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 915 AM EST FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. LIGHT
SNOW STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE GROUND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL START OFF
RELATIVELY QUIET YET CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD LIGHT, STRATIFORM
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING THE MOST PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
THE SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND FLUFFY IN CHARACTER, WITH SLRS
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 15-20:1. WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE, SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE AWARE BEFORE
TRAVELING. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH SUCH HIGH SNOW RATIOS, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY AFTER
THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ENDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES, VERY COLD
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTRIBUTING TO QUITE COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
START A LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO AROUND -20 DEGREES FOR EXPOSED SLOPES IN
VERMONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER GREENS, BUT SNOW WILL BE
WINDING DOWN AS WINDS DROP OFF. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
1030- 1040MB HIGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
TEENS FOR BROADER VALLEYS WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGING
CRESTS OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AROUND ZERO
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE, AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY WITH
-5 TO -15 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. WE'LL NEED TO WATCH SARANAC
LAKECLOSELY, THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL AID IN DEEPENING THE COLD
POOL AND COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
-20.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 407 AM EST FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM IS BEING PRESENTED IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. INITIAL ESTIMATES FOR
FORCING ALONG THIS WAVE LOOKS ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA THAT A FEW SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE QPF WILL NOT BE LARGE, HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. TIMING VARIANCES ARE STILL MODERATE
BETWEEN MODEL SUITES, SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH EVOLUTION MORE
CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
MODELS HAVE BACKED UP ON THE RAPID WARMUP THAT WAS PRESENTED
24HRS AGO. AS SUCH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR CONTINUED SNOW POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT
CHANCE OF KEEPING SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND INTO WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS INDICATING A GOOD SHOT AT A WHITE CHRISTMAS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THOSE WITH POST HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR FOR THE LATE WEEK HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO SYSTEM TIMING. SOME RUNS HAVE
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A LOW PASSING WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPING VERMONT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE TRACK IMPLICATIONS WILL BE LARGE AND CONTROL THE FLAVOR OF
SYSTEM THAT OCCURS, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THERE WILL BE BIG CHANGES BASED ON HOW THE FORECAST
TRACK EVOLVES.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP
BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM, BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER
WITH THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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