290
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
618 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. SNOW
WILL BECOME SHOWERY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER HEADED INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 611 PM EST FRIDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WESTWARD.
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF A BIT EAST OF THE GREENS AS FLOW HAS BECOME
BLOCKED, SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THERE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
LAKE, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDS WILL AND
PERSISTENT WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 20
ABOVE ZERO. THE FORECAST GENERALLY HAS THIS COVERED, BUT HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS, TEMPERATURES, AND WINDS TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED. TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING THROUGH THE 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. QPF
AND SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT, DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. GENERALLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OF QPF WILL YIELD AROUND ONE TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE GREENS WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ADDING TO THE TOTALS
THERE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL BE VERY FLUFFY
WITH RATIOS AROUND 17 TO 1 EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THE DRIER SNOW,
THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO, AROUND 20 CLOSEST TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL NOT GO TERRIBLY FAR FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS, GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
COLDEST SPOT WILL BE IN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
COLD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 332 PM EST FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION, CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE BEST
OPTIONS FOR PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS, AND 5-15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO WITH A STEADY 5-10 KT NORTHWEST WIND. EXTRA CARE
SHOULD BE TAKEN BY THOSE VENTURING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT, AS
FROSTBITE CAN SET IN QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
MONDAYS HIGH WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND UPPER-
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GREENS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPES LOOK TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MONDAY NIGHT UP TO 25 KTS ON THE BROAD WATERS AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 332 PM EST FRIDAY...A WHITE CHRISTMAS LOOKS MORE AND MORE
PROMISING ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE END TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES. THE GFS KEEPS SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY
CHRISTMAS DAY, WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A FASTER
MOVING SYSTEM ENDING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HOW QUICK THE
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE, EVEN WITH HIGH SLRS, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BECOME BLOCKED OFF OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL HELP DEVELOP A BREAKING WAVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST, WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS INVERTED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVENT
ANY SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM MOVING INTO THE BTV AREA,
AND KEEP THEM TO THE SOUTH. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OUT
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-30S FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA WITH
SOME UPPER-20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...AS SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WE'VE
HAD REDUCTIONS IN BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM, BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, GENERALLY
DROPPING TO MVFR ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
CHRISTMAS DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...NEILES
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