209
FXUS61 KBTV 211805
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING
TONIGHT AND A LESSENING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. SEASONABLY COLD AND
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 835 AM EST SATURDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
CONTINUES IN TWO PRIMARY BANDS...ONE EAST OF GRAND ISLE FORMING
FROM THE INLAND SEA AND EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS MILTON,
COLCHESTER, AND BURLINGTON. A SECOND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND, ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN,
IS IMPACTING SHELBURNE AND CHARLOTTE SOUTHWARD ALONG ROUTE 7
INTO VERGENNES AND MIDDLEBURY. SEEING ROUGHLY 30 DBZ IN THIS
BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR. EVENTUALLY, PBL
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WILL ADVECT IN THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THESE LAKE STREAMERS TO
WEAKEN TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. IN THE MEANTIME, HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOW VSBY IN SNOW AND POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3" EXPECTED, SHOULD SEE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 6" BETWEEN SHELBURNE AND MIDDLEBURY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING ALONG THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR. ALLOW EXTRA
TIME IF YOU ARE TRAVEL ACROSS CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -15 AND -25 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
AN ADDITION 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FOR FRIGID TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1030-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH SOME BREEZES TO
AROUND 20 MPH TONIGHT WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMMUNITIES IN THE ADIRONDACKS; -15 TO -25
DEGREE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THOSE WITH PLANS FOR RECREATION AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS SHOULD EXPECT COLDER
WIND CHILLS GENERALLY -30 TO JUST LESS THAN -40 DEGREES.
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS TO THOSE THAT
ARE NOT PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, -5 TO
-15 WIND CHILLS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL SLOW SUNDAY WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD. AMBIENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO MID TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 401 AM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
EVEN COLDER WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT SNOWPACK.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE FRIGID SO ANYONE THAT MAY BE VENTURING OUTSIDE SHOULD
TAKE EXTRA CARE TO LIMIT THEIR EXPOSURE TO THE COLD AND STAY WARM.
MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD, WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
BE WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH SNOW SHOWERS REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 401 AM EST SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
REGION, CONTINUING TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
MONDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT TUESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION
WILL END, WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS HAVING PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE OTHERS SHOW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM, A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS E-SE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN ARE GRADUALLY LESSENING IN EXTENT AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER, ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE KBTV TREND 1-2SM -SHSN TO 3-5SM -SHSN OVC020 MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS THOSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WEAKEN. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BKN-
OVC020-030 DUE TO LAKE GENERATED STRATUS CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
NW FLOW REGIME. KEPT CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AT KBTV. ELSEWHERE, LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
CONTINUE WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
DRYING CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY, GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-22KT AT BTV/MPV/PBG. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LESSEN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
P-GRADIENT SLACKENS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ005-009-018.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/BOYD
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...BANACOS
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