688
FXUS61 KBTV 211952
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING
TONIGHT AND A LESSENING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. SEASONABLY COLD AND
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 209 PM EST SATURDAY...A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING COLD NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BROUGHT LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
EARLIER TODAY, WITH UP TO 6" SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTH
BURLINGTON AND SHELBURNE AREAS. PLEASE SEE OUR RECENTLY ISSUED
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN HAS LARGELY
DIMINISHED AS DEWPOINTS BELOW 10F HAVE ADVECTED IN FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC, YIELDING STRONG PBL DRYING AND LESSENING RADAR
REFLECTIVITY NEAR KCXX. MAY STILL SEE SOME LAKE-INDUCED FLURRIES
AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH NW FETCH ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFLAKES HAVE BECOME VERY FINE GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE, WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE E AND SE SHORES
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW, BUT TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
AS WELL WITH GRADUAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MAIN STORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE COMMUNITIES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION, AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE P-GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO
SLACKEN A BIT, SO WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASTWARD BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT, ALBEIT INEFFECTIVE,
SUNSHINE. LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN, CONNECTICUT, AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS, AND
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WITH
FRESH SNOWPACK, CAN BTV DIP TO ZERO DEGREES OR BELOW FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 2/26/2023 (A RECORD 664 CALENDAR DAYS)? THERE'S
A LOW CHANCE (15%) OF THAT HAPPENING PER 13Z NBM, BUT CURRENT
OFFICIAL FCST IS FOR A LOW OF 4F AT KBTV. MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. READINGS OF -5F TO
-15F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT'S NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WITHIN
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 401 AM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
EVEN COLDER WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT SNOWPACK.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE FRIGID SO ANYONE THAT MAY BE VENTURING OUTSIDE SHOULD
TAKE EXTRA CARE TO LIMIT THEIR EXPOSURE TO THE COLD AND STAY WARM.
MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD, WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
BE WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH SNOW SHOWERS REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 401 AM EST SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
REGION, CONTINUING TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
MONDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT TUESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION
WILL END, WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS HAVING PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE OTHERS SHOW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM, A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS E-SE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN ARE GRADUALLY LESSENING IN EXTENT AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER, ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE KBTV TREND 1-2SM -SHSN TO 3-5SM -SHSN OVC020 MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS THOSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WEAKEN. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BKN-
OVC020-030 DUE TO LAKE GENERATED STRATUS CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
NW FLOW REGIME. KEPT CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AT KBTV. ELSEWHERE, LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
CONTINUE WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
DRYING CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY, GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-22KT AT BTV/MPV/PBG. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LESSEN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
P-GRADIENT SLACKENS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. COLD N-NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25KTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN COURTESY OF A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT THIS EVENING,
OVERNIGHT, AND DURING SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY
BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BROAD LAKE AND IN
THE VICINITY OF SHELBURNE BAY. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...BANACOS
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