118
FXUS61 KBTV 160221
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
921 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INTENSITY
INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION, HIGH WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY MAY BRING LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 901 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH
8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SNOW WILL
TRANSITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN SUNDAY AS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS RISE. TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT
* WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY ALONG THE MAINLY ALONG/ADJACENT TO WESTERLY SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RUTLAND COUNTY OF VERMONT. GUSTS TO 55
MPH EXPECTED FOR WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS WITH UP TO 60 MPH
FOR RUTLAND COUNTY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN WINDSOR
COUNTY OF VERMONT. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
WHERE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS.
THE SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION, THOUGH IT VARIES IN
INTENSITY. CURRENTLY, A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO A GENERAL LINE FROM POTSDAM TO PLATTSBURGH
TO ST, JOHNSBURY. AS IT WAS FARTHER SOUTH, IT WAS HEAVIER AND
PRODUCED TOTALS OF 3-4 INCHES, WITH REPORTS OF THESE IN
OGDENSBURG, GOUVERNEUR AND SHELBURNE. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN, AND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING, THERE
WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STILL TO THE SOUTH, LITTLE DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
THEREFORE, EVERYWHERE WILL BE SEEING STEADY ACCUMULATIONS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A FEW AREAS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THERE. THE CHANGEOVER LINE
HAS NOT MOVED MUCH FROM THE LAST UPDATE, GENERALLY EXTENDING IN
A LINE FROM SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO AROUND SYRACUSE. IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
OVERVIEW: A STRONGLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT BRINGING FIRST SNOW, THEN A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL FOR MANY RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WARNING. ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL GET BRINGING STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOWING THESE WINDS BELOW THE
FRONTAL INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO SURFACE IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
THE STRONGEST WIND SIGNATURES ARE ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTRY WITH
MARGINALLY LOWER WINDS FOR AREAS NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF THE
GREENS. GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE PRONE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR LARGE AREAS
WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW -10F FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FORECAST CHANGES: ICE AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH 6+ HOURS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. 0.1" TO 0.35" OF ICE EXPECTED.
SOME MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE, UP TO 0.5" IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT WHERE WINDS WILL KNOCK SNOW OUT OF TREES WHILE ALLOWING
FOR MORE EFFICIENT ICING PROCESSES. ICE ACCRETION COMBINED WITH
WINDS MAY EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES.
WINDS WERE INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT SURROUNDING THE LOW'S TRACK
JUST EAST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER AND ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH. STRONG WINDS
AROUND THE LOW MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY REALIZED IN MODELS WHEN
CONSIDERING THE ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION OF THE STRONGLY
DEEPENING LOW. ADDITIONAL 5-10MPH OF WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW
ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS DIRECTLY
ALONG THE LOW'S TRACK.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MARGINALLY INCREASED BASED ON A SLIGHT BUMP UP
IN QPF PRECEDING THE WARM NOSE. THIS DIDN'T CHANGE THE OVERALL
MESSAGE OF 6 TO 12 INCHES, BUT SHIFT TOTALS FOR SOME SPOTS
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT AND THEIR IMPACTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS DUCT UNDER THE INVERSION
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE GREENS, COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING CUT
CUT TOTALS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR ADJACENT LOCATIONS LIKE
BURLINGTON TO JERICHO AND SIMILAR LONGITUDES IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME HAS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AND
THUS WARRANTS A MENTION; THE RESULT WOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE
TOTALS RANGE TO 4 TO 7 INCHES FOR THOSE LOCALES.
IMPACTS: SNOW, ICE, AND PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF ICE ACCRETION AND WIND GUSTS COULD EXACERBATE
STRESS ON TREES. WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAMPER RECOVERY
EFFORTS WHILE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -10F FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WHICH COULD CAUSE FROST BITE OR HYPOTHERMIA IN LESS THAN 1 HOUR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 PM EST SATURDAY...MONDAY IS SHAPING OUT TO BE QUITE THE
BLUSTERY DAY FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC PUSH WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WHEN YOU COUPLE THE ISALLOBARIC WINDS AND
DEEP MIXING FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT'S A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
THAT WE SEE 35 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER WINDS IF
THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC WINDS COINCIDE WITH DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING
BUT RIGHT NOW THE TWO ARE OUT OF PHASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM ON MONDAY GIVEN VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER AND WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIND GUST, WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL LIKELY
BE BELOW ZERO. THESE STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM ANY TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE
FROM THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM. WE WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO ABATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND WILL BE AROUND THAT
WE WILL LIKELY NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE
RANGE.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WITH CONVERGENT
FLOW ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 325 PM EST SATURDAY...FINALLY, SOME QUIET WEATHER. AFTER A BUSY
FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A
RESPITE FROM SNOWFALL FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS STILL ELEVATED BUT
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT'S GOING TO BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE AIR MASS BEGIN TO
MODIFY AND WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF THE POTENTIAL OF A COASTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A SYSTEM HEADING STRAIGHT OUT TO SEA AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING A SYSTEM THAT JUST GLANCES THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO DIAL IN THIS SYSTEM BUT THE INCREASING
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE LIKE A SWING AND A MISS THAN
ANOTHER BIG SNOW STORM. THEREAFTER, WE COULD SEE A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BIG SYSTEMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 4SM FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST CURRENTLY,
AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 8 KNOTS AS WELL. CEILINGS AROUND
1000-3500 FT AGL. FROM 08Z TO 12Z, THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN
SNOWFALL UNTIL THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. A STRIP OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z WITH
1/4SM TO 1SM VISIBILITY AND UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF LLWS. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
HEAVY SNOWFALL, THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TOWARDS PL, OR FZRA
AT KRUT AND KMPV. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS, LOCALLY TO 25 KNOTS AT KMSS AND
KRUT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40
KNOTS AT KMSS AND KRUT. STRONG WINDS, TERRAIN EFFECTS, AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS, BUT GENERALLY STILL MVFR. ABOUT 22Z AND
BEYOND 00Z MONDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TOWARDS
SNOW, WHICH WILL BRING VISIBILITY BACK TO 1/4SM TO 2SM AND
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 700-2000 FT AGL. THE WIND DIRECTION AT
THIS POINT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
PATH OF LOW PRESSURE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
WIND SPEEDS AS IT PASSES NEARBY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LIKELY SHSN, DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE FZRA.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-
016>021.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
VTZ003-006-008-010-020.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ011-019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ016>018.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAY
LONG TERM...CLAY
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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