135
FXUS61 KBTV 161746
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH A VARIETY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER. THIS INCLUDES HEAVY
SNOWFALL, AREAS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. A
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR 6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. ALSO, A HIGH WIND
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS UPDATE CYCLE WAS
TO COOL TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN
GENERAL, DYNAMIC COOLING AND EFFICIENT BLOCKING OF SOLAR
RADIATION HAVE RESULTED IN A 1-2 DEGREE COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES.
WHILE NOT IMPACTFUL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THIS IS DELAYING THE
ONSET OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. AS SUCH, THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT CUT TO FREEZING RAIN TOTALS BY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES; NOW EXPECTED TO
TOTAL 0.25-0.3". THIS DOESN'T CHANGE THE OVERALL MESSAGE, BUT
COULD LIMIT SOME OF THE HIGHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS
AND ICE-LOADING ON TREES SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE; THEREFORE A
NET POSITIVE OUTCOME. ELSEWHERE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL WITH
HIGHEST RATES CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. A FEW SPOTS HAVE ECLIPSED THE 5-7 INCH RANGE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
MASSENA, NY AND ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER. WINDS ARE SLOWLY
PICKING UP IN RUTLAND, BUT AREN'T TOO FAR FROM EXPECTED
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. MORE SPORADIC SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE RUTLAND AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALLOWING
FOR INCREASING SPEEDS DUE TO THE LESS DAMPENING EFFECT ON WINDS
BY LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY FOR 6 TO 14
INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 12 TO 16 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SNOWFALL WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
MIXED PRECIP OCCURS AND STRONG SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, WHILE A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY, VT.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM MONDAY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCES HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH QPF ACRS MOST
OF OUR CWA AND A LITTLE COOLER WITH THERMAL PROFILES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LESS FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL.
GOES-16 MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIGGING ACRS THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY, WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT IS ADVECTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE NE CONUS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACE AN ELONGATED 996MB LOW PRES
OVER CENTRAL KY, WITH GREATEST 3 HRS PRES FALLS TOWARD WESTERN PA,
ALONG A SFC WARM FRNT/TROF. LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC POLAR JET OF 160 TO 180 KNOTS ENHANCES LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES LOW PRES TRACKING FROM
NEAR PITTSBURGH, PA AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO ELMIRA, NY BY 18Z AND
NEAR PORTLAND, ME BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED 850MB AND
700MB CIRCULATION WL PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY, WHICH
COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WL HELP ADVECT A WARM
LAYER NORTH INTO MOST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SHARP 850MB TO
700MB THERMAL PROFILES AND MODERATELY COLD 925MB TEMPS, ITS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT HOW FAR NORTH THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ADVANCES. SFC OBS INDICATE FZRA ALREADY TO NORTH ADAMS, MA, BUT AS
HEAVIER REFLECTIVITY ARRIVES THINKING THE PRECIP RATES WL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING. CRNT THINKING IS A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IMPACTS MOST
OF OUR CWA, EXCEPT THE SLV, BUT ONLY A FEW HOURS FOR COUNTIES NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHILE THE FREEZING RAIN STAYS MAINLY ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE AND WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF
MODERATE PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, WHICH IS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY 12Z. THIS
WL QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHERN BTWN 12-15Z WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY. HOWEVER, AS WARM LAYER ALOFT
ADVECTS NORTHWARD TOWARD A SLK TO BTV TO 1V4 LINE, EXPECT A MIX
OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH FREEZING RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF A STAR LAKE
TO MPV TO LEB LINE. EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WITH INITIAL BAND OF WAA LIFT THIS MORNING, WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE, AS POTENT S/W ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BTWN 21-00Z, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE SNOW THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES ONCE AGAIN AROUND 1
INCH PER HOUR. THESE STRONG DYNAMICS AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROFS SHOULD RESULT IN ALL LOCATIONS SWITCHING BACK TO SNOW
THIS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN SNOW TOTALS WL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
WINDS/TRRN AND PTYPE, IF A COOLER SOLUTIONS OCCURS SNOWFALL WL
BE HIGHER, BUT IF A WINTRY MIX EXPANDS NORTHWARD QUICKLY THAN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. IN GENERALLY THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND PORTIONS
OF THE NEK THRU THIS EVENING. TOTAL GENERALLY 6 TO 14 INCHES,
EXCEPT LOCALIZED 12 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE SLV, WHERE NORTHEAST
FLOW WL ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE. ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.10 TO
0.25 INCH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF EASTERN
VT. ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AS POWERFUL SUB 980MB LOW PRES LIFTS QUICKLY INTO
EASTERN CANADA.
FOR HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WESTERN
SLOPES, IT SEEMS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A BIT WEAKER WITH TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS, WITH THE STRONGEST CORE OF
850MB WINDS ARE 50 TO 60 KNOTS OCCURRING BTWN 15Z-20Z. IN ADDITION,
NOTED THE 925MB WINDS ARE ONLY IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE, WHICH MAY
LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH WINDS. AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES VERY
CLOSE TO OUR CWA TONIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS OCCURS, BUT
AS LOW PRES DEEPENS TO OUR EAST STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE GREENS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN GREENS NEAR LUDLOW TO BROOKFIELD. WE WL KEEP WATCH IN
PLACE FOR NOW AND FEEL BASED ON CRNT MIXING PROFILES AND PROGGED
850MB WINDS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS, MOST AREAS WL CONVERT TO A WIND
ADVISORY, EXCEPT MAYBE THE SOUTHERN GREENS. THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW/ICE AND STRONG WINDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACRS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG LLVL CAA CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LIKELY. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS MEASURING
WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE, AS SUB 980MB LOW PRES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. HIGHS RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S WARMER VALLEYS WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 329 AM EST SUNDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT WITH
JUST LIGHT, FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST IN THESE AREAS AS LOWER
ELEVATIONS SEE A FEW PASSING FLURRIES HERE AND THERE. IT WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY COLD AS A BROADLY STRETCHED UPPER POLAR TROUGH REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. IN
GENERAL, LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE +/- SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 329 AM EST SUNDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SHALLOWER, SO
THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD. COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR PART OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DROP THE DGZ
TO THE SURFACE, SO IT MAY CAUSE THE SNOW TYPE TO BE MORE NEEDLE-LIKE
AND ACCUMULATE LESS EFFICIENTLY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE DGZ RISES AND BECOMES MUCH WIDER, AND MORE EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL MAY BEGIN, THOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AT THAT POINT. OVERALL, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD IN THE FAVORED AREAS. THE BUILDING RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO TRY TO KEEP A POTENT SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS KEEPING ALL THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH, AND ONLY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT OF THE GFS/EC/CAN ENSEMBLES BRING OVER AN INCH OF
SNOW TO SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS
LIKE AT MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH EVEN
THAT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT
LOW, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AND IT LOOKS TO
STAY RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS, RANGING FROM
LIFR TO MVFR, ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING TO MIX
IN SLOWLY, ALTHOUGH COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT SNOW AROUND
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WHEN
SLEET AND WINTRY MIX ARE MOST LIKELY. CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FT AGL, ALTHOUGH LOWER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. TOWARDS 00Z, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES TO TERMINALS
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY, GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS AT KRUT AND KMSS WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS EXPECTED AT KRUT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY, WITH
INCREASING GUSTS TOWARDS 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-
016>021.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ003-006-008-010-020-021.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ011-
017>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ016.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BOYD/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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