211
FXUS61 KBTV 162313
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY'S WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, VERY POOR VISIBILITY, AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SNOW TO WIND DOWN. BEHIND THE LOW, STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH QUIETER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH A RELATIVE WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 602 PM EST SUNDAY...
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH A NARROW BLIZZARD WARNING MAINLY FOR THE MASSENA,
NY AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 4 TO 15
INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 5 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ARE CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS STORM WILL WIND DOWN EARLY TONIGHT.
* HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE REPLACED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.
CONTINUED LOW VISIBILITY, BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, COLD WIND
CHILLS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WINDS GUSTING 30
TO 60 MPH.
6 PM FORECAST UPDATE: NOT MUCH TO UPDATE ON WITH THE FORECAST.
WITH A FASTER CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW, DID BUMP SNOW RATIOS UP
AND REFINED QPF BASED ON SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER GETTING BUMPED TO A STORM TOTAL OF 18",
WHICH TRACKS WITH REASONABLE REPORTS STARTING TO TRICKLE IN OF
14-15". THIS JIVES WELL WITH THE NYS MESONET REPORTS WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT APPROACHING 1.00-1.25". BASED ON WIND OBSERVATIONS,
THIS SURFACE LOW HAS OPTED FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY TRACK AND
SHOULD TRACK INTO MASSACHUSETTS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WINDOW OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON WESTERN
SLOPES TO BE OVERALL LESS, BUT DID PRODUCE STRONGER NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MASSENA. GIVEN THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS, WE'VE HAD A
NUMBER OF TECHNICAL ISSUES, LIKE KMSS LOSING WIND REPORTS AND
THE TIPPING BUCKET AT KPBG NOT WORKING. PLATTSBURGH HAS LIKELY
OBSERVED A DAILY RECORD PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE LIQUID REPORTS
FROM SURROUNDING NYS MESONETS, BUT WITHOUT A READING, WE WILL
HAVE TO SET IT TO MISSING. HOWEVER, WE CAN PUT AN ASTERISK DOWN
ON THIS ONE, BECAUSE THEY LIKELY BROKE IT. WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OF US, WE'LL MAKE THE TRANSITION TOWARDS
FAVORED NORTHWEST SLOPES MOMENTARILY. SO WIND DIRECTIONS WERE
ADJUSTED FOR THE LOW TRACK, AS WELL AS ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
FILTER IN A LITTLE QUICKER TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
OVERVIEW: DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVER. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING IN MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUST WINDS.
SNOW: WIDESPREAD 4 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITION 1 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURS WITH REPORTS OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN, WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BECOMING LESS GUSTY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY 7PM FOR THE MASSENA AREA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE. WHILE UP TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ON AVERAGE, THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS THAT OVER
PERFORM, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE SNOW BANDS HAVE
BEEN HEAVIEST. IT WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING FOR A REPORT OR TWO
IN EXCESS OF 16 INCHES. MORE CONSISTENT SNOW IS DISPLACING ICE
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AS DYNAMIC COOLING ELIMINATES THE WARM NOSE.
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KEY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES THAT HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS OTHER
COUNTIES TODAY.
WINDS: SOME GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS DOWNWARD AS LOW PRESSURE'S CENTER MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TONIGHT BECOMING
WESTERLY AFTER 4AM AND INCREASE. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIXING INCREASES SHARPLY AS COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY
ALLOWING THESE GUSTS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PEAK WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS RANGING 50 TO 65 MPH FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN GREEN AND ADIRONDACKS. LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 11 IN
NORTHERN NY FROM AROUND ELLENBURG EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN COULD ALSO SEE THESE STRONGER GUSTS. ELSEWHERE, GUST
40 TO 55 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS DECREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT REMAIN BREEZY.
TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES TURN SHARPLY COLDER TONIGHT WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT
WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES UP TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO MONDAY
AS WINDS INCREASE. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY NIGHT BEING PARTICULARLY COLD WITH MANY
LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW -20. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR THOSE UNPREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, BUT THE SNOW
CHARACTER WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE FRIGID TO START THE DAY, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A BREAK IN THE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT LOW
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
THE LOW TRACK TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING A WELCOMED STRETCH OF QUIETER WEATHER, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING MORE SEASONABLE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS, RANGING FROM
LIFR TO MVFR, ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING TO MIX
IN SLOWLY, ALTHOUGH COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT SNOW AROUND
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WHEN
SLEET AND WINTRY MIX ARE MOST LIKELY. CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FT AGL, ALTHOUGH LOWER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. TOWARDS 00Z, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES TO TERMINALS
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY, GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS AT KRUT AND KMSS WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS EXPECTED AT KRUT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY, WITH
INCREASING GUSTS TOWARDS 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-
016>018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-
016>021.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ019>021.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029-
030-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ027>031-034-
035-087.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
034.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD/TABER
NEAR TERM...BOYD/HAYNES
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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