675
FXUS61 KBTV 170234
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
934 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND SNOW TO WIND DOWN. BEHIND THE LOW,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH QUIETER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A RELATIVE WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 927 PM EST SUNDAY...
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL WRAP UP AT 1 AM MONDAY. THE LAST
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
MOMENTARILY. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS.
* HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE REPLACED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.
CONTINUED LOW VISIBILITY, BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, COLD WIND
CHILLS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WINDS GUSTING 30
TO 60 MPH.
930 PM FORECAST UPDATE: THIS WINTER STORM IS WINDING DOWN. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
PICKING UP. THERE'S ONE LAST PIECE OF BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. WE'VE HAD GENERALLY 9 TO 16 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND ABOUT 3 TO 8
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE HERE AND THERE, BUT THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE.
OVERVIEW: DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVER. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING IN MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUST WINDS.
SNOW: WIDESPREAD 4 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITION 1 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURS WITH REPORTS OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN, WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BECOMING LESS GUSTY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY 7PM FOR THE MASSENA AREA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE. WHILE UP TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ON AVERAGE, THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS THAT OVER
PERFORM, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE SNOW BANDS HAVE
BEEN HEAVIEST. IT WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING FOR A REPORT OR TWO
IN EXCESS OF 16 INCHES. MORE CONSISTENT SNOW IS DISPLACING ICE
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AS DYNAMIC COOLING ELIMINATES THE WARM NOSE.
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KEY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES THAT HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS OTHER
COUNTIES TODAY.
WINDS: SOME GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS DOWNWARD AS LOW PRESSURE'S CENTER MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TONIGHT BECOMING
WESTERLY AFTER 4AM AND INCREASE. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIXING INCREASES SHARPLY AS COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY
ALLOWING THESE GUSTS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PEAK WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS RANGING 50 TO 65 MPH FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN GREEN AND ADIRONDACKS. LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 11 IN
NORTHERN NY FROM AROUND ELLENBURG EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN COULD ALSO SEE THESE STRONGER GUSTS. ELSEWHERE, GUST
40 TO 55 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS DECREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT REMAIN BREEZY.
TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES TURN SHARPLY COLDER TONIGHT WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT
WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES UP TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO MONDAY
AS WINDS INCREASE. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY NIGHT BEING PARTICULARLY COLD WITH MANY
LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW -20. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR THOSE UNPREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, BUT THE SNOW
CHARACTER WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE FRIGID TO START THE DAY, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WE'LL PASS ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
BENEATH A DECAYING SURFACE HIGH. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT
EFFICIENT COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS ARE STILL LIKELY. THE UPPER FLOW IS
FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE, WITH
SEVERAL COMPACT UPPER LOWS SWIRLING AROUND NORTH. THESE SMALLER
UPPER LOWS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
AND GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WHILE THE LARGER UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
REFLECTION BOTH INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE 40 N, 70 W BENCHMARK. THERE
WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE VERTICAL
MOTION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SNOW,
BUT WITHOUT ANY OTHER FEATURE, ACTIVITY SHOULD JUST BE VERY
LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS AS
DEEPER RIDING BUILDS. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
CUT ACROSS NEXT SUNDAY, AND WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH WE CAN EKE OUT OF
THAT, BUT WE'VE GOT ABOUT A WEEK TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 9Z WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS KMSS AROUND 3-4Z AND
KMPV AROUND 7-9Z. FOR KEFK, THEY WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN AN
UPSLOPE SNOW REGIME WITH FALLING SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
WEST/NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BECOME GUSTY
AROUND 6Z. WINDS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-45 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL, WE
EXPECTED RESUSPENDED SNOWFALL FROM THE GUSTY WINDS TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 MILES BUT IFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-
016>021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-
016>018.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ019>021.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029-
030-035-087.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
034.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD/TABER
NEAR TERM...BOYD/HAYNES
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...CLAY
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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