515
FXUS61 KBTV 170856
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE POWERFUL WINTER STORM THAT HAS IMPACTED OUR REGION WILL
QUICKLY LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY, WHILE GUSTY WINDS,
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE, ALONG WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1236 AM EST MONDAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUE TODAY FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SLV, NORTHERN
DACKS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT, INCLUDING THE NEK FOR
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15F AND -25F BELOW FROM 11 PM TONIGHT
UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
SFC ANALYSIS PLACES POWERFUL 970MB LOW PRES EAST OF CARIBOU
MAINE THIS MORNING WITH DEEP AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS OUR
CWA. THIS SHARP PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING OF
850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 65 KNOTS UNDER CAA WL PRODUCE LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH TODAY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS NEAR LUDLOW TO VSF. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WL BE IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH RANGE WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES
ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND LLVL CAA WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/MTN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, COMBINED WITH FLUFF
FACTOR WL PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, BUT GOOD
LUCK MEASURING THE NEW SNOW, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. HAVE NOTED
THE FLOW IS STRONGLY UNBLOCKED, SO HAVE CARRIED WINTER WX
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS TO INCLUDE THE NEK OF VT. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WITH AREAS OF VIS BELOW 1SM AT TIMES.
TEMPS WL STRUGGLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS TODAY,
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 0
TO -15F RANGE. TONIGHT TEMPS FALL BACK EITHER SIDE OF 0F WITH
GUSTY WINDS, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -25F
ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN DACKS AND MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT,
INCLUDING THE NEK. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE CPV AND LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY WL BE IN THE -5F TO -15F RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUES.
TUES WL FEATURE LIGHTER WINDS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS WARM ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES STILL EITHER SIDE OF OF.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, BUT THE SNOW
CHARACTER WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE FRIGID TO START THE DAY, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EST MONDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WE'LL
PASS ANOTHER COOL NIGHT BENEATH A DECAYING SURFACE HIGH. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY INHIBIT EFFICIENT COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS ARE STILL LIKELY.
THE UPPER FLOW IS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
OFFSHORE, WITH SEVERAL COMPACT UPPER LOWS POSSIBLY SWIRLING AROUND
NORTH. THESE SMALLER UPPER LOWS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WHILE THE LARGER UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE 40 N, 70 W
BENCHMARK.
THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE VERTICAL
MOTION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SNOW, BUT
WITHOUT ANY OTHER FEATURE, ACTIVITY SHOULD JUST BE VERY LIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS AS DEEPER RIDING BUILDS. A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CUT ACROSS NEXT SUNDAY, AND
WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH WE CAN EKE OUT OF THAT, BUT WE'VE GOT ABOUT A
WEEK TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY FROM VFR AT PBG TO MVFR BTV/RUT TO IFR AT THE REST OF
OUR TAF SITES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT MPV/SLK AND EFK WITH INTERVALS OF IFR AT MSS/BTV AND PBG
POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT OUR TAF SITES,
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5SM AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, THE CROSS
RUNWAY WINDS AT BTV WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND SHEAR
AND TURBULENCE THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY
BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES TODAY AND
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>011-
016>018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ019>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-029-
030-035-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-031-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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