227
FXUS61 KBTV 171437
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE POWERFUL WINTER STORM THAT HAS IMPACTED OUR REGION WILL
QUICKLY LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY, WHILE GUSTY WINDS,
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE, ALONG WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 934 AM EST MONDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE AS EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AROUND THE RUTLAND AREA AS SOME SHOWERS
UNSEEN BY THE RADAR PERSIST. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS BEING
REPORTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUE TODAY FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SLV, NORTHERN
DACKS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT, INCLUDING THE NEK FOR
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15F AND -25F BELOW FROM 11 PM TONIGHT
UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
SFC ANALYSIS PLACES POWERFUL 970MB LOW PRES EAST OF CARIBOU
MAINE THIS MORNING WITH DEEP AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS OUR
CWA. THIS SHARP PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING OF
850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 65 KNOTS UNDER CAA WL PRODUCE LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH TODAY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS NEAR LUDLOW TO VSF. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WL BE IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH RANGE WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES
ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND LLVL CAA WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/MTN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, COMBINED WITH FLUFF
FACTOR WL PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, BUT GOOD
LUCK MEASURING THE NEW SNOW, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. HAVE NOTED
THE FLOW IS STRONGLY UNBLOCKED, SO HAVE CARRIED WINTER WX
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS TO INCLUDE THE NEK OF VT. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WITH AREAS OF VIS BELOW 1SM AT TIMES.
TEMPS WL STRUGGLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS
TODAY, COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE 0 TO -15F RANGE. TONIGHT TEMPS FALL BACK EITHER SIDE OF 0F
WITH GUSTY WINDS, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F
AND -25F ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN DACKS AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT, INCLUDING THE NEK. WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE IN THE -5F TO -15F RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUES.
TUES WL FEATURE LIGHTER WINDS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS WARM ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES STILL EITHER SIDE OF OF.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT, AND QUIET WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WHICH IS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EST MONDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WE'LL PASS ANOTHER COOL NIGHT BENEATH A DECAYING SURFACE HIGH.
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT EFFICIENT COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS
ARE STILL LIKELY. THE UPPER FLOW IS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH A LARGER
UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE, WITH SEVERAL COMPACT UPPER
LOWS POSSIBLY SWIRLING AROUND NORTH. THESE SMALLER UPPER LOWS
WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WHILE THE LARGER UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
REFLECTION INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE 40 N, 70 W BENCHMARK.
THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE
VERTICAL MOTION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
GENERATE SNOW, BUT WITHOUT ANY OTHER FEATURE, ACTIVITY SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMS AS DEEPER RIDING BUILDS. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CUT ACROSS NEXT SUNDAY, AND WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH WE CAN
EKE OUT OF THAT, BUT WE'VE GOT ABOUT A WEEK TO MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY A
WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM VFR AT PBG/BTV/RUT TO IFR
AT EFK/SLK/MPV. EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK AND EFK WITH INTERVALS OF IFR AT MSS/BTV
AND PBG POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 32 TO 42 KNOTS AT
OUR TAF SITES, CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2-5SM AT TIMES. IN ADDITION,
THE CROSS RUNWAY WINDS AT BTV WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>011-
016>018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ019>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-029-
030-035-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-031-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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